EN 
PT_BR 
The first estimate for the 2026/27 crop of soy In Mato Grosso, the data indicates a reduction of 2.02% in productivity and a drop of 1.43% in production, despite a slight increase in cultivated area, according to data released by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), based on estimates from the National Supply Company (Conab). The projection considers the climatic risks associated with El Niño, while, in the national scenario, production should grow and demand tends to increase with the rise in crushing and external purchases.
In Mato Grosso, average productivity is estimated at 64.82 sacks per hectare, while production is expected to reach 50.89 million tons. The cultivated area, in turn, should reach 13.08 million hectares, a growth of only 0.60% compared to the 2025/26 harvest, the smallest increase in the entire historical series.
In Brazil, the outlook is for increased production, with expansion of the planted area and growth in demand. This scenario, however, may lead to a tighter balance between stocks and consumption, requiring attention to market equilibrium throughout the cycle.
According to data released by Imea, based on Conab estimates, the first projection for the 2026/27 harvest indicates that Mato Grosso should produce 50.89 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.431 TP4T compared to the previous season. The reduction is mainly related to the expectation of lower productivity. The average yield was estimated at 64.82 sacks per hectare, a decrease of 2.021 TP4T compared to the 2025/26 harvest.
The projection occurs amidst the climate risks associated with El Niño, which can influence crop development conditions. Therefore, weather patterns will be one of the factors to monitor throughout the production cycle. Despite the prospect of a drop in production, the cultivated area is expected to show a slight expansion of 0.60%, reaching 13.08 million hectares. According to the survey, this is the smallest growth recorded in the historical series.
While Mato Grosso shows a prospect of reduced production, the national scenario points to growth in the 2026/27 harvest. According to data released by Imea, based on Conab estimates, Brazilian soybean production should reach 181.62 million tons, an increase of 0.67% compared to the previous cycle. The cultivated area in the country is estimated at 49.31 million hectares, a growth of 1.43%. The national expansion exceeds the projected increase in area in Mato Grosso, where the advance should be 0.60%.
The figures indicate that the increase in planted area in Brazil should contribute to expanding production, even in the face of uncertainties related to weather conditions and crop yields in certain regions.
In addition to production prospects, the Brazilian soybean market is expected to see increased demand in the 2026/27 crop year. According to data released by Imea, national demand is estimated at 185.51 million tons, an increase of 2.07%. Among the factors supporting this projection are the expectation of higher soybean crushing, related to the increase in the mandatory biodiesel blend to B16, and external demand, especially from China.
The prospect of consumption increasing at a rate higher than the projected growth of Brazilian production places the relationship between stocks and usage at the center of market attention. This indicator allows for an assessment of product availability relative to demand. A more balanced assessment requires attention to the evolution of supply, consumption, and exports throughout the season.
The projected scenario for the 2026/27 harvest combines moderate growth in Brazilian production, expanding demand, and climate risks that could affect productivity in Mato Grosso.
According to data released by Imea, the stock-to-use ratio points to a more balanced situation in the next season. This scenario reinforces the importance of monitoring crop development, confirming production estimates, and observing domestic and international consumption patterns. In Mato Grosso, the projected reduction in productivity contrasts with the prospect of national production growth. At the same time, increased demand could influence the balance between supply and consumption, making the coming months crucial for assessing the conditions of the Brazilian soybean market.
