EN 
PT_BR 
Brazilian production of corn Corn production is expected to reach 148.02 million tons in the 2026/27 harvest, an increase of 2.431 TP4T compared to the previous cycle, despite the forecast of a drop in productivity, according to data released by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), based on estimates from the National Supply Company (Conab). The expansion of the cultivated area and the increase in domestic demand, driven by the corn ethanol industries, should favor the growth of national supply.
The area planted with corn in Brazil is estimated at 23.70 million hectares, an increase of 4.891 tons per hectare compared to the previous year. Conversely, average productivity is expected to decrease by 2.341 tons per hectare, to 104.07 sacks per hectare.
The scenario combines an expansion of cultivated area with climatic uncertainties that could affect crop yields. Among the main factors of concern are the possible effects of El Niño, with risks of irregular rainfall in the Midwest and excessive precipitation in the South.
According to data released by Imea, based on Conab projections, the Brazilian area dedicated to corn cultivation should reach 23.70 million hectares in the 2026/27 crop year. This represents a growth of 4.89% compared to the previous cycle.
The expansion is associated, among other factors, with the prospect of increased domestic demand for the grain. Domestic consumption is expected to grow by 6.60%, driven mainly by the expansion of corn ethanol industries.
The growth of this industrial segment tends to strengthen the demand for the grain and favor price stability. In this context, consumer behavior will be one of the important factors to monitor in the Brazilian corn market throughout the next harvest.
Despite the increase in planted area, the national average corn productivity is estimated at 104.07 sacks per hectare, a reduction of 2.341 TP4T compared to the previous harvest, according to data released by Imea based on Conab estimates.
Among the main points of attention are the weather conditions forecast for the producing regions. The potential effects of El Niño could have distinct impacts on crop development, increasing uncertainties regarding crop yield.
In the Midwest, irregular rainfall can compromise plant development. In the South, excessive precipitation represents a risk to crop performance. The distribution of rainfall throughout the cycle will therefore be one of the determining factors for confirming national productivity and production estimates.
Even with the projected reduction in productivity, the expansion of the cultivated area should contribute to an increase in Brazilian corn production in the 2026/27 crop season.
According to data released by Imea, based on estimates from Conab, national production should reach 148.02 million tons, a volume 2.43% higher than that recorded in the previous cycle. The projected result indicates that the growth in area could partially offset the effects of lower average productivity, allowing for an increase in the national supply of the cereal.
Nevertheless, the actual performance of the harvest will depend on weather conditions in the main producing regions. Rainfall patterns, the effects of El Niño, and crop yields will be crucial in assessing whether production will reach the estimated volume. At the same time, the expectation of increased domestic consumption, especially by the corn ethanol industry, reinforces the importance of monitoring the supply and demand relationship in the formation of cereal prices.
