High temperatures worry coffee producers in Brazil.

The risk of coffee fruit abortion due to high temperatures keeps Brazilian producers on alert, even with the favorable conditions observed at the beginning of the 2027/28 harvest. According to information from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), rainfall has contributed to crop development, but the possibility of El Niño's influence in the coming months increases concerns about the climate.

In the short term, the main focus is on episodes of intense heat, which can harm the retention of the fruit on the coffee plants. Researchers at Cepea emphasize that, despite the satisfactory initial results, it is still too early to assess the consolidation of fruit set in the main production areas.

This uncertainty is observed in the Cerrado Mineiro region, where alternating periods of heavy rain and high temperatures have generated caution among producers. It will likely be possible to more reliably assess the outcome of this stage of crop development in December.

The possibility of losses also worries agents in the Paulista region. In this case, the concern is related to the combination of excessive heat and the potential influence of El Niño, conditions that could favor fruit abortion over the next few weeks.

Despite the climatic risks, the situation observed so far is considered positive. In most coffee-growing regions of the country, flowering occurred as expected, accompanied by good fruit set, according to Cepea collaborators. The rainfall recorded in the producing areas has been important for this performance, helping to keep the fruit on the plants. This scenario, however, does not yet allow us to confirm the results of the initial phase of the cycle.