Analyst points to limited link between diesel and soybeans.

The relationship between oil, diesel and soy This helps to measure the extent to which movements in the energy market can reduce uncertainty about oilseed prices. According to Thiago Gil, an expert in agricultural finance, this connection exists, but its explanatory power regarding soybean oil is still unclear. soy It is limited.

The analysis starts with mutual information, a measure used to identify linear and non-linear relationships between variables. In the exercise, the daily returns of diesel and soybean oil were distributed across five ranges of equal frequency, from very low to very high levels. The method then compared the uncertainty regarding the return of soybean oil before and after knowing the range of variation for diesel.

The data indicate that the mutual information between diesel and soybean oil was 0.0495, equivalent to approximately 3.1% of the area of uncertainty considered. In practice, knowing the variation in diesel only reduces a small portion of the uncertainty about the behavior of soybean oil. Most of the movements remain related to other factors.

The contrast with the relationship between oil and diesel is stronger. In this case, the mutual information reached 0.4046, corresponding to 25.1% of the area. The calculation considered 3,424 daily returns between 2013 and 2026, organized into five ranges by quantiles.

The results show that there is a communication channel between the oil market and the soybean complex, through biodiesel and vegetable oils, but the signal loses strength when it reaches soybean oil. Diesel adds some information to the analysis, but the noise remains predominant.