Corn market enters a scenario of increased pressure.

The international market of corn A more balanced scenario is beginning to emerge for the 2026/27 harvest, with supply risks in different producing regions and greater attention to price formation. According to Felipe Fuchs, a consultant in strategic marketing, the combination of tighter stocks, weather uncertainties, and high costs could create a "perfect storm" for the grain.

In the United States, the world's leading producer, projected ending stocks for the next crop year fell to 1.653 billion bushels, while consumption rose to 16.33 billion. The stock-to-use ratio is approaching 10%, in a scenario that still considers productivity of 180.7 bushels per acre, already revised downwards in the first projection based on field research. Further declines in productivity could further reduce the slack in the balance.

In Europe, production potential is also being pressured by high temperatures and water shortages. COCERAL projects 52.7 million tons for the EU-27 plus the United Kingdom, down from 57.4 million tons in the previous cycle. With lower supply in key regions, dependence on exporting countries capable of compensating for this reduction is growing.

In this context, Brazil gains importance in global supply. The projection for 2026/27 is 139 million tons, practically stable compared to the previous season, but production costs remain high. The possible return of El Niño also increases concerns about the soybean planting window and, consequently, about the second corn crop.

For producers, the current scenario demands attention to the construction of the risk premium. A potential increase in corn prices could represent not only a price opportunity, but the difference between a squeezed margin and a more attractive margin in the next cycle.