Soybean profitability remains positive despite higher costs.

The most recent survey by Datagro Grãos indicates that, despite lower performance than in 2024/25, the gross profitability of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 is expected to remain mostly positive. The result reflects the combination of production costs, productivity, and expected revenue, which support relatively favorable gross margins for producers.

Initially, a notable increase in costs is observed – especially in Mato Grosso, Paraná, and Goiás – after two consecutive years of decline. In addition to the increase in input costs (seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides), the exchange rate fluctuation has made external purchases more expensive, putting pressure on results.

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In terms of productivity, estimates point to good yields, supported by the regular use of technology and relatively stable weather conditions, even in the face of the possibility of a weak La Niña. The recovery of average productivity in Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul stands out, areas severely affected by rainfall scarcity in 2024/25. In other states, a slight decrease is expected, but still at levels above the historical average – which allows for some dilution of the high costs per hectare.

Finally, on the revenue side, Datagro estimates that oilseed prices will remain under pressure in 2025/26, at a level lower than this year, limiting producers' gross profits. The decline reflects the prospect of bumper crops in the US and Brazil, leading the global market to record its fourth consecutive surplus.

Consequently, gross profitability is projected, still on an initial basis, at 46% in western Paraná (vs. 47% in 2024/25), 17% in southern Mato Grosso (vs. 29% in 2024/25), and 25% in southwestern Goiás (vs. 46% in 2024/25). Recoveries are expected in northern Rio Grande do Sul (25% in 2025/26 vs. -7% in 2024/25) and southern Mato Grosso do Sul (21% in 2025/26 vs. 13% in 2024/25).