Brazil projects record soybean crop in 2025/26 with stable global stocks.

The global supply and demand balance for soybeans in 2025/26 indicates stable stocks, with more contained international prices. While US production is expected to be lower, Brazil projects a new record of 175 million tons, keeping the world supplied, according to information from Itaú Unibanco's Agro Consulting and Economic Research firm.

The cultivated area in Brazil is expected to grow at a slower pace than in recent harvests, but will still expand, with an estimated average productivity of 3.6 tons per hectare, slightly below the 2024/25 harvest. Argentina also contributes to the global scenario, with expected production close to 50 million tons.

Photo: Gilson Abreu

The climate is a critical factor: La Niña can reduce rainfall in southern South America and increase volumes in the Midwest and North of Brazil. For producers, the pace of sales for the 2025/26 crop remains slow, with only 20% sold by August, below the historical average, pressured by subdued international prices and expectations of a record harvest.

If rainfall remains favorable and planting progresses as expected, Brazil will be able to further increase supply, while Argentina may influence premiums in the domestic and international markets, according to information from Itaú Unibanco's Agro Consulting and Economic Research firm.