EN 
PT_BR 
The quote for soy Soybean prices fell back below US$$ per bushel in Chicago, pressured by the progress of the harvest in the United States and signs of lower Chinese demand. According to data released by the International Center for Economic Analysis and Agricultural Market Studies (CEEMA), this movement occurs after a rise of 16% in the oilseed in the last three months.
The first-month quoted soybean contract closed September at US$ 12.93 per bushel. On October 1st, the price fell again to US$ 12.84. A week earlier, the value was US$ 13.17 per bushel. The September average was US$ 13.06, 9% above the average recorded in August.
Despite the recent drop, soybeans accumulated a gain of 16% in Chicago between July and September. In September 2025, the monthly average had been US$ 10.19 per bushel. Soybean meal also lost value. After reaching US$ 376.10 per short ton on September 24, the product fell to US$ 352.10 on October 1, a drop of 6.4% in five working days.
According to data released by CEEMA, one of the factors for the recent decline is the progress of the harvest in the United States. As of September 27, work had reached 17% of the planted area. The expectation is for a US production slightly above 123 million tons. So far, the US crop does not appear to have suffered losses due to weather conditions.
The quarterly stocks report, with figures as of September 1st and released on the 30th, indicated 8.57 million tons of soybeans in the United States. This volume represents a decrease of 31% compared to the same date in 2025. However, the decline was considered insignificant given market expectations.
The USDA maintained at 58% the percentage of US soybean crops classified as being in good or excellent condition as of September 27. This index is below the 62% recorded in the same period of 2025. Another 29% of the crops were classified as being in average condition, while 13% were classified as being in poor to very poor condition.
US exports, on the other hand, showed an increase. In the week ending September 24, US soybean shipments totaled 1.15 million tons. This volume was well above that recorded in the previous week and exceeded market expectations.
In the current marketing year, which began on September 1st, exports totaled 2.8 million tons, 26% higher than the same period last year.
According to data released by CEEMA, the main pressure on prices came from China. The trend is for reduced Chinese soybean purchases in the coming months, given the weak demand for animal feed and negative crushing margins in the Asian country. This scenario reduces the space for new shipments from the United States.
Another factor that frustrated the market was the meeting between the presidents of the United States and China last week. Soybeans were left out of the tariff relief proposal.
China plans to reduce tariffs on a wide range of American agricultural products, but soybeans, the main agricultural product imported by the Asian country from the United States, were excluded from the list of tariff reductions.
China's private oilseed processors had already met most of their needs by early February, with purchases made in Brazil, Argentina, and through state reserves. Soybean stocks at 111 Chinese processing plants reached 7.96 million tons in the week of September 25.
According to data released by CEEMA, this was the highest level recorded in at least 15 years. The increase in stocks, combined with lower demand for animal feed, negative crushing margins, and uncertainty about tariffs on US soybeans, is increasing pressure on prices in Chicago.
