Rain increases risk to wheat quality.

The market of wheat Southern Brazil is experiencing a period of lower liquidity, high prices, and growing concern about the quality of the new harvest due to excessive rainfall. According to TF Agroeconômica, this scenario also reinforces the need for imports to supplement the supply to the industry, especially in Rio Grande do Sul.

In the Rio Grande do Sul market, business is sporadic. Mills that need to buy are indicating around R$1,400 per ton FOB, while sellers are asking R$1,500 and, in Vacaria, up to R$1,600. Some transactions were recorded at R$1,450. In Panambi, the over-the-counter price rose to R$71 per sack.

The rains have once again caused concern for the crops. The assessment indicates that 15% of the areas are in excellent condition, 82% are between good and average, and 3% are in poor condition or have irreversible losses. The first batches show problems with Fusarium head blight, with a risk of lower yield, loss of industrial quality, and a high presence of DON (degenerative rot).

The state reportedly has approximately 70,000 tons still available and would need to import a similar volume to meet milling needs until the next harvest. With technical reserves, the requirement could reach three cargoes of handy-size ships. Trading companies consulted indicate further imports before the harvest.

In Santa Catarina, the mills are well-stocked and focused on receiving payments for purchases already made. Some isolated deals occurred at R$ 1,520 per ton FOB, while sellers showed resistance due to expectations of price increases.

In Paraná, the deterioration in quality is more intense. Mills in the North and West receive batches with a hectoliter weight of 72 to 73 and a falling number of up to 200. Blast, Fusarium head blight, and new rains increase the fluctuation of parameters such as pH, gluten strength, and falling number.