EN 
PT_BR 
The market of soy The week begins under the influence of US crop conditions, global stocks and the opening of the 2026/27 planting window in Brazil. According to the “Direto do Campo” analysis by Grainsights, produced by Grão Direto this Monday (31), the scenario is also marked by the expectation of a strong El Niño.
On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the international market is monitoring the final figures for US soybean production. According to an analysis by Grainsights/Grão Direto, the increase in production projected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in August was a result of the expansion of the harvested area, which offset the decline in productivity.
However, the situation is still going through an important phase of determining crop yields. At the same time, the index of areas classified as being in good to excellent condition has been declining.
As a result, soybean futures contracts are maintaining support near US$ 13 per bushel, given a balance considered to be without slack in the US Midwest, according to data released by Grainsights/Grão Direto.
Over the next few days, the direction of prices will depend mainly on reports about crop conditions and rainfall forecasts for the American Midwest.
In the international market, the relationship between stocks and crushing is becoming increasingly close for the 2026/27 season. According to data released by Grainsights/Grão Direto, this dynamic contributes to maintaining the firmness of international prices and also provides support for Brazilian port premiums. This movement helps to neutralize some of the seasonal pressures caused by the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere.
Domestically, this week marks the end of the sanitary break and the official opening of the planting window for the 2026/27 crop. In Paraná and areas of São Paulo, soybean planting is authorized from September 1st. In Mato Grosso, the sanitary break ends on September 6th, with operations scheduled to resume on the 7th.
With the opening of the planting window, producers' focus shifts to the regularity of rainfall and preventive phytosanitary management. According to an analysis by Grainsights/Grão Direto, this period demands discipline in proactive management and attention to the costs of pesticides.
The consolidation of a strong El Niño phenomenon increases concerns about rainfall regularity in the Central-West and MATOPIBA regions, especially with the start of the new planting window. In this scenario, producers need to assess when to begin sowing. One of the decisions involves bringing forward planting in the face of isolated rainfall or waiting for soil moisture to recover to reduce the risk of replanting.
According to data released by Grainsights/Grão Direto, the choice is strategic, since any replanting could increase the costs of the operation. The combination of climate, phytosanitary management, and costs will require planning in the coming weeks. The analysis indicates that the second half of the year will be marked by important decisions and a market subject to fluctuations.
