EN 
PT_BR 
THE soy Brazilian production is expected to maintain robust performance in 2025/26, with record volumes supported by high production, global demand, and the competitiveness of the national product. According to an analysis by RaboResearch, a Rabobank subsidiary, the harvest is estimated at 182 million tons, while exports could reach 114 million tons.
In the domestic market, crushing is expected to reach 63 million tons, 4 million tons more than last year. Even with the postponement of the mandatory biodiesel blend for 16%, the appreciation of soybean oil, driven by high oil prices, sustains attractive margins for the industry.
In the United States, soybean crushing is expected to reach a record high in 2025/26, but exports are likely to decline due to lower Chinese demand. This scenario favors Brazil, reinforcing demand for domestic soybeans and helping to support prices. In Rondonópolis, prices rose 5% at the beginning of August compared to the previous month.
However, for 2026/27, the growth of Brazilian production is expected to slow down. The projection indicates stability in the planted area after more than two decades of expansion, due to lower profitability, higher financial costs, restricted credit, and greater caution. The initial estimate is 178 million tons, below the record of 2025/26, mainly due to the normalization of yields after two years of exceptional productivity.
Among the risks are trade relations between the United States and China, the possible occurrence of El Niño, and the volatility of input costs. The recovery of export premiums at Brazilian ports could reduce competitiveness and limit crushing margins. In Mato Grosso, the end of the sanitary break on September 6th will be monitored given the risk of delayed rainfall and impacts on the 2026/27 planting season.
