EN 
PT_BR 
The Brazilian harvest of corn The 2025/26 season is expected to maintain virtually stable production, while domestic consumption gains strength and increases its weight in the balance between supply and demand. According to an analysis by Rabobank, the expansion of the poultry and swine chains continues to drive the use of the cereal in feed, with consumption estimated at 72 million tons in 2026, an increase of almost 21% compared to the previous year.
The most significant movement, however, comes from the corn ethanol industry. In the first half of the year, the sector consumed 12.5 million tons, a volume 2 million tons higher than that recorded in the same period of 2025. The expectation is that, by the end of the year, ethanol production will demand around 27 million tons, equivalent to approximately 20% of national production.
With the domestic market absorbing a larger share of the supply, the competitiveness of Brazilian corn abroad tends to decrease. Exports are projected to fall by approximately 3 million tons compared to the previous year, a trend already signaled by shipments in the first half of the year. As a result, ending stocks may show a slight recovery compared to 2025 levels.
For the 2026/27 crop season, the risk of El Niño occurring could delay soybean planting and, consequently, the sowing of the second corn crop. At the same time, demand should continue to grow, especially for ethanol in the first half of 2027. Even with the progress of the second crop, prices showed resilience, with quotations in Campinas 24% above those observed in August 2025. The scenario also includes logistical risks in the Northern Arc, should there be a reduction in river levels, and external uncertainties linked to Russian attacks on grain transport and storage infrastructure in Ukraine.
