EN 
PT_BR 
The Brazilian harvest of soy The 2026/27 season is projected to have a new record, but with increased attention to the weather and no increase in planted area. The initial estimate considers that production growth will depend on productivity, in a scenario of a strong El Niño and varying risks among producing regions.
AgResource Brasil estimates 184.1 million tons, 3.6 million above the 180.5 million tons projected for 2025/26 and 1.9 million tons below the 186 million tons projected by the USDA. The calculation keeps the area stable and incorporates a climate discount of 4.9 million tons linked to El Niño.
The projected impact is not uniform. MATOPIBA accounts for a reduction of approximately 3.9 million tons, Mato Grosso for 2.7 million tons, and Goiás for 1 million tons. Part of the losses would be offset by a gain of approximately 2.5 million tons in Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, and Santa Catarina.
Historical data shows that, in seven growing seasons with a summer ONI (Overall Natural Temperature) equal to or greater than 1.0 °C, rainfall between October and December was 28.21 TP4T below average in MATOPIBA and 7.51 TP4T below average in the Central-West region, while the South received 50.71 TP4T more precipitation. In Mato Grosso, the pattern indicates a higher risk of planting delays, with a potential effect on the second-crop corn planting window.
The consultancy emphasizes that rainfall during the planting period does not historically explain the final productivity of soybeans or second-crop corn. In stress tests, a repeat of the 2023/24 season would lead to production of 179.8 million tons, while the 2015/16 pattern would reduce the volume to 173.8 million tons. These figures are not treated as probable scenarios.
The projection will be revised according to rainfall, especially between January and March. The study indicates a statistically negligible national effect of El Niño, but relevant regional differences for risk, credit, and agricultural planning.
