EN 
PT_BR 
The Brazilian harvest of sugarcane The 2026/27 harvest is expected to reach 705.2 million tons, an increase of 4.71 TP4T compared to the previous cycle, according to a report prepared by the Economic Department of the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of São Paulo (Faesp), based on data from the National Supply Company (Conab). This increase is supported by the growth in harvested area and productivity, favored by favorable weather conditions since the beginning of the season.
The harvested area is expected to reach 9.05 million hectares, a growth of 1.11 TP4T. Productivity is expected to increase by 3.61 TP4T, rising from 75,188 to 77,905 kilograms per hectare. Despite the recovery in sugarcane supply, Brazilian sugar production is expected to move in the opposite direction. The estimate is 42.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.91 TP4T compared to the 44.2 million tons of the 2025/26 cycle.
According to data released by Faesp, based on information from Conab, the reduction in sugar production occurs even with the greater availability of raw materials. In the international market, the expectation of lower global supply and climate risks in producing countries support the recovery of prices. In the domestic market, another factor should influence the destination of sugarcane. The increase in the mandatory blending of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline, from E30 to E32, strengthens the demand for the biofuel and encourages mills to expand their production.
Total ethanol production is expected to reach 41.9 billion liters in the 2026/27 harvest, an increase of 11.7% compared to the previous cycle, according to data released by Faesp based on Conab.
Ethanol produced from sugarcane is expected to reach 30 billion liters, a growth of 9.71% of the total volume. Within this volume, anhydrous ethanol production is expected to increase by 2.61% of the total volume, while hydrated ethanol production is expected to advance by 13.91% of the total volume. Corn ethanol shows an even greater growth rate. Production is expected to reach 11.9 billion liters, an increase of 17% of the total volume.
According to data released by Faesp, anhydrous corn ethanol production is expected to grow by 22.4%, while hydrated ethanol production is expected to increase by 13.6%. With this, corn will account for 28.4% of all ethanol produced in Brazil.
Production recovery is expected to occur in the country's main producing regions, but at different rates. According to data released by Faesp, the Southeast remains the main producing region, while the Central-West, South, North, and Northeast are also expected to experience expansion. Regional growth will be sustained by an increase in harvested area, productivity, or a combination of both factors.
In São Paulo, the main national producer, production is expected to reach 362.8 million tons, an increase of 4.31 TP4T compared to the previous harvest. The harvested area in São Paulo is expected to show a slight reduction of 0.21 TP4T. On the other hand, productivity should increase by 4.51 TP4T, rising from 78,425 to 81,980 kilograms per hectare. The average yield of Total Recoverable Sugar (ATR) is expected to fall from 137 to 134 kilograms per ton. Even so, the total ATR should increase by 1.71 TP4T.
Sugar production in São Paulo is expected to decline by 2%, to 25.75 million tons, while ethanol production is expected to grow by 4.5%, reaching almost 13 billion liters.
According to data released by Faesp, the reduction in international sugar prices has led many sugar mills in São Paulo to review the allocation of raw materials, allocating a larger portion of the sugarcane to ethanol production.
The increased demand for biofuel also weighs on this decision. Another factor is the faster cash generation provided by ethanol during the harvest season. São Paulo accounts for 51.4% of sugarcane and 60% of sugar produced in the country. In ethanol, however, the state's share is 31%.
While sugarcane maintains its leadership in ethanol production, corn is gaining ground, mainly in the Midwest. According to data released by Faesp, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul have been increasing their share of national ethanol production and reducing the gap with São Paulo.
For the 2026/27 harvest, corn ethanol production is expected to reach a new record. With this increase, the Central-West region maintains its position as the main producer of this fuel. The harvest scenario, therefore, combines a recovery in sugarcane production with a change in the destination of the raw material. While sugar loses ground, ethanol gains strength, driven both by the market and by the increase in the mandatory blend in gasoline.
