EN 
PT_BR 
The projected reduction in production of rice The long-term situation in the United States in 2026/27 is increasing attention on the supply of grain in the Americas and could have repercussions for Mercosur throughout the next year. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst of the grain supply chain... riceThe most recent data shows a scenario in which lower North American production coincides with signs of reduced acreage in the main producing countries of the South American bloc.
The USDA/NASS report kept the estimate for total US rice production virtually unchanged, from 158.4 million to 158.2 million cwt, equivalent to about 7.18 million tons of paddy rice. The main change is in long-grain rice, whose projection fell from 106.7 million to 103.5 million cwt.
Compared to the previous harvest, the difference is more significant. In 2025, US long-grain rice production was close to 153.3 million cwt. For 2026, the current projection represents a reduction of approximately 32.5%.
Initial inventories were revised from 37.6 million to 41.8 million cwt, offering short-term support but without eliminating the importance of the drop in production.
In Mercosur, the scenario also requires monitoring. In Rio Grande do Sul, IRGA's planting intention is 861,800 hectares, a decrease of 3.41 TP4T. In the Western Border region, the projected reduction reaches 3.71 TP4T. Paraguay and producing regions of Argentina are also working with smaller areas, while Uruguay is evaluating a possible reduction.
According to Cardoso, the situation does not indicate a supply crisis at this time, but it presents fundamentals that deserve attention. In addition to the area actually sown, it will be important to observe how much of the planting will occur within the ideal window. With markets in Central America, the Caribbean, and other regions of the Americas dependent on imports, the availability of long-grain rice in 2027 is becoming an increasingly important factor in industry assessments.
