Will rice become a bigger burden on consumers' wallets?

The possibility of a reduction in the supply of rice Next year, it will start gaining traction in projections and reignite the debate about prices and their impact on family budgets. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst in the supply chain... riceCurrent indicators combine a smaller cultivated area in the South, climate risks associated with El Niño, reduced American production, and uncertainties in important producing regions of Asia.

Conab's first projection indicates that the rice-growing area in the South could fall below 1 million hectares, the lowest level since 1982. The agency also estimates Brazilian production at around 10.8 million tons. In a scenario of lower supply, the upward trend in grain prices returns to the center of attention.

Cardoso notes, however, that the market has recently experienced much higher prices. The CEPEA/IRGA indicator reached R$ 127.36 per sack in December 2023 and remained close to that level in early 2024.

Consumer concerns are growing in the face of the possibility of further price increases. In an exercise presented by the analyst, a portion of rice that goes from R$ 0.60 to R$ 0.90 would represent an increase of R$ 0.30 per meal. The impact is not negligible, especially for lower-income families, but it should be considered in conjunction with other recurring expenses, such as energy, water, fuel, transportation, rent, medicines, services, and other food items.

The IPCA-15 for September showed an increase of 0.38% in food consumed at home, while rice advanced 2.39% in the month. For Cardoso, the discussion should consider not only the possibility of an increase in the price of the grain, but also the effective weight of this increase on the budget and the need for adequate remuneration for those who produce it.