Consulting firm assesses the impact of a smaller rice harvest.

The international market of rice [He] has resumed closely monitoring the situation in India, given the combination of reduced production, rising prices, and high inventories. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst in the supply chain... riceIn September, the USDA reduced its projection for Indian coffee production in 2026/27 from 150 million to 147 million tons, the first annual decline since 2015/16.

The Indian industry is working with an even lower estimate of approximately 144 million tons, almost 10 million tons below the 154 million tons recorded in the previous harvest. The decrease would be around 6.51 TP4T, the largest in almost two decades.

The main factor is the weather. Since the beginning of the monsoon season, accumulated rainfall was 15% below normal, and in important producing regions, the deficit reached 42%. The area cultivated with summer rice, responsible for more than 80% of the country's production, was almost 4% smaller.

Prices have already reacted. Indian parboiled rice with 5% broken grains reached US$ 375 to US$ 381 per ton, the highest level in over a year. Just a few weeks earlier, prices ranged between US$ 364 and US$ 369 per ton.

At the same time, inventories remain high. On September 1st, public stocks, including paddy rice, reached 59.6 million tons. According to the USDA, ending stocks for 2025/26 were raised to a record 58.5 million milled tons.

This volume reduces, for now, the risk of export restrictions. The assessment is that the impact on the market will depend on how much of this rice will be available for international trade and at what price. This scenario gains weight because the USDA also reduced its 2026/27 world production forecast by 3.4 million tons, to 533.9 million tons.