EN 
PT_BR 
THE soy Brazil begins the 2026/27 harvest under a climate scenario that may require faster decisions and different strategies among producing regions. The forecast of greater El Niño intensity between October and December 2026, with the possibility of lasting until April 2027, places rainfall, temperatures, and phytosanitary management among the main points of attention.
In the South, especially in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, the expectation of above-average rainfall between October 2026 and February 2027 increases concerns about excess moisture. Meanwhile, in the Central-West and North, periods of lower rainfall and high temperatures may increase the risk of water stress.
According to Gustavo Corsini, agricultural engineer and Regional Marketing Manager at IHARA, the differences between regions require planning beyond just rainfall expectations. “The choice of adapted cultivars, soil preparation, seed treatment, and the availability of tools on the farm for phytosanitary management become increasingly important in a growing season where application windows may change from what has been previously adopted,” he explains.
In the southern regions, which are subject to higher humidity, one of the first challenges lies in crop establishment. Compacted soils with poor drainage or water accumulation can favor root diseases, such as Phytophthora root rot, and compromise plant emergence.
Therefore, seed treatment and the selection of materials adapted to local conditions should be part of the decisions made before sowing.
In wetter years, monitoring also needs to consider prolonged periods of leaf wetness and mild temperatures, conditions that favor diseases such as Asian soybean rust.
In this scenario, phytosanitary management requires attention to the appropriate time for fungicide application, especially given the possibility of reduced operating windows caused by rain. “Producers need to consider that, in a scenario of higher humidity, the application window can vary. If there is a sequence of rainy days, for example, 5 days, and the estimated interval between applications is 12 days, then it can extend to 17 days, compromising phytosanitary treatments. Therefore, having the appropriate technologies and planning operations becomes an efficient management strategy,” reinforces Corsini.
Predicted weather conditions can also influence weed management. In the Midwest, periods of lower humidity reinforce the importance of controlling weeds from the beginning of the cycle, preventing competition for water and nutrients while the soybean is still developing.
The rainy winter favored the presence of weeds in early September. Among the species that require attention are goosegrass and amaranth, whose presence has increased in production areas.
Pest management is also part of the planning. Under conditions of lower humidity and higher temperatures, the reduced activity of entomopathogenic fungi and the acceleration of the insect development cycle can favor an increase in pest pressure. “Last year, under normal climatic conditions, there was an increase of 50% in whitefly management. For the current scenario, farmers should be aware that not only whiteflies, but other pests, such as stink bugs and caterpillars, can increase considerably in this cycle,” emphasizes Gustavo.
Given this scenario, frequent monitoring and the adoption of integrated management strategies are considered fundamental to identifying the need for control and preventing the spread of infestations.
The 2026/27 harvest also requires planning for the operational capacity of farms. In the South, preparation must consider periods of rain that could hinder the entry of machinery and the completion of applications.
In the Midwest and North, attention is focused on crop establishment and reducing initial stresses that can compromise plant development.
According to Corsini, adapting to the conditions of each region will be important throughout the cycle. “Brazilian farmers are resilient and able to plan effectively. But, faced with a scenario of greater climate variability, it is important that they have the right tools available at the right time, because the application window may be different from usual and decision-making needs to be faster,” he comments.
Regional differences also reinforce the need to monitor the market during the harvest season. Any losses caused by excess or lack of rain can be partially offset by a more favorable price scenario.
Therefore, in addition to monitoring crops and weather conditions, tracking prices and commercial planning become part of the producer's decisions throughout the 2026/27 harvest.
