Brazil may expand its cotton acreage in the 2026/27 crop season.

Brazil could expand the area of cotton in the 2026/27 harvest, driven by more attractive cotton prices and a tighter international supply scenario. However, the producers' decision will still depend on the pace of planting. soy and the weather conditions in the main producing regions, factors that will define the size of the window available for the second crop.

According to data released by Itaú BBA's Agro Consulting firm, the progress in processing the current crop has already led producers to begin selecting the seeds that will be used in the next cycle. The recent increase in cotton prices has boosted interest in the crop and reinforced the possibility of expanding the cultivated area in the country.

THE soyHowever, it will play a decisive role in this choice. As a significant portion of cotton In Brazil, the oilseed crop is planted after the oilseed crop; any delays in sowing may reduce the suitable window for planting. cotton Second crop. Therefore, the regularity of rainfall in the producing regions will be crucial in determining the area.

The stimulus for potential expansion also comes from the international market. In August, the average price of the first cotton futures contract traded on the New York Stock Exchange reached 85 cents per pound, an increase of 9.7% compared to July. In Brazil, cotton in Rondonópolis was traded, on average, at R$ 3.94 per pound, a monthly increase of 3.9%.

The price increase occurred amid concerns about global supply. In its September update, the USDA reduced its projection for global cotton production to 25.5 million tons in 2026/27, a decrease of 4% compared to the previous season. At the same time, global consumption was estimated at 26.8 million tons, an increase of 1%.

With production lower than consumption, global ending stocks are expected to fall from 16.4 million to 15.2 million tons. The stock-to-consumption ratio is also expected to drop from 62% to 57%, a movement that indicates a tighter market and could provide support for prices.

Part of this reduction is related to the United States. North American production was projected at 2.9 million tons, 5% below the previous cycle. Weather conditions in Texas, the country's main producing state, have become a concern for the market after periods of heat and low humidity in producing areas.

In China, another major global producer and consumer, a smaller harvest is also expected. Production is projected at 7.3 million tons, compared to 7.8 million in the 2025/26 cycle. Episodes of excessive rain, hail, strong winds, high temperatures, and drought in less irrigated areas have reduced some of the productive potential.

In Brazil, the USDA projects production of 4 million tons for 2026/27, slightly below the 4.1 million tons estimated for the previous season. Even so, the possibility of area growth remains on the radar, especially if prices remain attractive and the soybean calendar allows for an adequate planting window.