Analyst sees crucial weeks ahead for rice market.

The markets of rice Asian crops are entering the main 2026/27 season with price support, although the arrival of the first harvests is already testing the resilience of prices in the main exporting countries. According to analyst V Subramanian, this movement was evident last week, with declines in Myanmar, while export benchmarks in the region remained stable.

In India, the outlook remains firm despite resilient planting figures. The accumulated monsoon deficit, at 13.41 TP4T below the long-term average, and the allocation of 7.2 million tons for ethanol production increase the perception of tighter supply. The late arrival of the harvest also reinforces expectations of lower yields for the Kharif crop.

In Myanmar, downward pressure gained momentum with the more significant entry of the new monsoon crop into the physical market. This movement represents the first clear effect of the harvest on prices this season.

In Vietnam, prices stabilized following weaker replacement demand from the Philippines. The market still offers room for negotiation for buyers, while consistent trade flows to China help support prices.

In Southeast Asia, improved monsoon rains have reduced immediate moisture deficits for fourth-quarter crops. As a result, the most acute concerns related to El Niño have shifted to 2027. Even so, high fuel and fertilizer costs continue to limit producers' margins.

The next four to eight weeks will be crucial, with the peak of the harvest approaching. This period should indicate whether export prices will be able to hold or whether the increased seasonal supply will put broader pressure on prices.