Corn stocks in Brazil are expected to grow with the new harvest and favorable weather.

The global corn market is receiving relief with the record harvest in the United States, which guarantees high stocks and comfort in the global balance. According to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), published in September, production was revised to 427.1 million tons, above the previous estimate of 425.3 million. Exports also increased, reaching 75.6 million tons, while ending stocks are expected to reach 53.6 million tons, an increase of 59.21 TP4T compared to the 2024/25 crop.

Despite reports of lower-than-expected productivity in some regions, the American harvest continues at a rapid pace, and the largest volumes will be available from the second half of October. This scenario keeps global prices under pressure, given the abundant supply.

In Brazil, carryover stocks are expected to increase compared to the 2023/24 crop year. Sales are still below the average of the last five years, but October should see increased activity, as corn represents the main volume currently stored. Warehouses are expected to be freed up by January, preparing space for the arrival of the new soybean crop.

Favorable weather in the southern regions of the country is also contributing to the progress of planting the first crop, while the appreciation of the real is putting pressure on domestic prices, reducing competitiveness compared to export parity. Despite satisfactory shipments in September, the volume still limits further increases in domestic prices.

Even with projected exports of up to 42 million tons, Brazil should end the year with comfortable carryover stocks, ensuring stability for the domestic market and for planning the new harvest.