Soybean prices fall in the Brazilian market.

After two consecutive months of declines, soybeans rebounded on the Chicago Board of Trade in September. The grain ended the month up 1.4%, quoted at US$ 10.19 per bushel, driven by the perception that US production may fall short of the forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Adverse weather conditions, with a drier-than-expected August and harvested grains with low moisture content, supported the price recovery.

Another factor that influenced the international market was the Argentine government's move to remove and subsequently reinstate the export tax on grain, known as retenciones. This political and commercial instability contributed to increased volatility in Chicago prices.

In the Brazilian market, however, the international appreciation was not reflected in domestic prices. The appreciation of the real against the dollar and the stability of export premiums resulted in a drop of approximately 1% in soybean prices in Paranaguá, where the sack was traded at R$ 139 at the end of September.

Planting for the 2025/26 crop has begun in the country, favored by the earlier return of rains compared to last year. Despite still irregular volumes, soil moisture was sufficient to boost progress in rainfed areas and initiate cultivation in irrigated regions. To date, 11% of the projected area has been sown, above the 9% recorded in the same period of 2024. In Mato Grosso, the main national producer, IMEA indicated that 21% of the area had been sown by October 10th.

However, advance sales of the new crop remain slow. Data from Safras & Mercado indicate that 23% of the estimated production had been sold by the end of September, below the historical average of 32% and also lower than the 28% recorded in the same period of the previous year. With a potential harvest of 175 million tons, the volume already traded is around 40 million tons.

The scenario reflects the caution of producers, who are facing lower prices and high exchange rate volatility, factors that have discouraged advance negotiations and kept the domestic market in a holding pattern.