Soybean prices fall in the physical market ahead of the USDA report.

The physical prices of soy Prices retreated in all monitored markets at the close of Thursday (8), while export premiums showed appreciation at the port of Santos, with an increase of more than R$ 1 per sack. According to an analysis by Grão Direto, the movement occurred amid pressure on Chicago prices, associated with the progress of the North American harvest, and the expectation for the release of the Supply and Demand report (WASDE) from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), scheduled for this Friday (9).

Grainsights, the market intelligence arm of Grain DirectHe highlighted that, despite the fall in physical prices, export premiums have increased, indicating sustained demand at ports. The market is mainly following estimates of ending soybean stocks in the United States, given the expectation of a downward revision in projected volumes. If this reduction is confirmed, the analysis points to the possibility of a partial recovery from recent losses in Chicago.
In Paraná, FOB soybeans in Irati closed Thursday quoted at R$ 143.23 per sack, with reference to November 2026 and a positive basis of R$ 1.10 per sack. The Grainsights survey also recorded a price drop throughout the week, a movement related, according to the analysis, to the devaluation of the exchange rate compared to the level of R$ 5.21 observed at the end of September. The central-southern Paraná market maintained consistent premiums between the months monitored.
Negotiations showed differences between producing regions. In Mato Grosso, both along the BR-163 highway and in the Parecis region, the market remained practically paralyzed, with sellers awaiting the release of the WASDE (Sustainable Agricultural Data). In Rio Grande do Sul, Grainsights monitoring identified a greater willingness of producers to negotiate, while Santa Catarina presented sporadic transactions and greater selectivity. In Minas Gerais, Goiás, and São Paulo, available offers found buyers, although liquidity remained concentrated.

In Mato Grosso, soybean planting progressed in regions that had already received rain, while other areas were still waiting for moisture to continue work within the planting window. This situation was monitored in parallel with the behavior of negotiations, which remained limited in the state before the update of supply and demand estimates.

The release of WASDE data is the focus of market attention this Friday. Information from Grainsights indicates that a potential reduction in US ending inventories could favor a recovery in Chicago prices. In addition to the US figures, the market is monitoring possible adjustments to production projections for Brazil and Argentina, as well as exchange rate behavior, following the losses recorded since the end of September.