Oranges: Why production is expected to fall 10.2% in the 2026/27 crop year

The production of orange In the citrus belt of São Paulo and in the Triângulo Mineiro and Southwest regions of Minas Gerais, the harvest is expected to reach 263.1 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms in the 2026/27 crop season. According to data released by the Technical Department of Faesp, based on information from Fundecitrus, this volume represents a decrease of 10.21 TP4T compared to the 292.9 million boxes of the previous season, despite the expected growth of 1.11 TP4T in the cultivated area, which should reach 366,100 hectares.

The survey revised upwards, by 3.1%, the projection presented in May. According to data released by Faesp, the change is mainly related to the expectation of greater fruit weight for mid-season and late varieties, which raised the estimated average weight from 160 to 166 grams.

Even with the positive revision, productivity is expected to decline from 809 to 719 boxes per hectare. Factors cited include a lower number of fruits per plant, premature fruit drop, climatic conditions observed in different regions, and the cumulative effects of phytosanitary problems such as citrus greening and citrus canker.

The premature fruit drop rate is estimated at 24.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the estimate made in May 2026.

The rainfall recorded between May and August also influenced the progress of the harvest. According to data released by Faesp, the harvest is occurring at a slower pace, with the fruits remaining on the plants to await the appropriate point of ripeness and enhance the quality of the juice.

Production patterns vary among producing regions. The Northern sector, comprised of the Triângulo Mineiro, Bebedouro, and Altinópolis, remains the main producing region, with a forecast of 72.3 million boxes.

According to data released by Faesp, the volume remains practically stable compared to the projection and the previous harvest. Productivity, however, is expected to fall 2.2%, to 825 boxes per hectare.

In the Northwest region, production is expected to grow by 46.61 TP4T compared to the 2025/26 harvest. Volume is expected to increase from 20.1 million to 29.4 million boxes, while productivity should advance by 39.41 TP4T, from 570 to 794 boxes per hectare.

The region also showed an increase of 2.9% in production and productivity compared to the estimate made in May. The North and Northwest are the only regions with a projected increase in production compared to the 2025/26 crop.

In the Southwest region, production is expected to reach 58.2 million boxes, a decrease of 24.91 TP4T compared to the previous cycle. Productivity follows the trend, with a forecast of 723 boxes per hectare, a reduction of 25.51 TP4T.

In the South, 35.6 million boxes are expected, a volume 14.4% lower than the 2025/26 harvest. Productivity should be 596 boxes per hectare, a decrease of 11.9%.

In the Central region, estimates point to a production of 67.6 million boxes, a reduction of 17.21 TP4T compared to the previous season. Productivity is expected to fall by 18.11 TP4T, to 668 boxes per hectare.

According to data released by Faesp, the Central region was the only one that showed a decline compared to the May estimate, with drops of 2.9% in both production and productivity. The survey links the result to the high incidence of citrus greening and the higher rate of fruit drop.

The varieties also show different behaviors in the projection for the 2026/27 harvest. Natal registers the largest projected reduction compared to the previous season, of 33.5%, followed by Valencia/Folha Murcha, with a decrease of 22.8%.

For the period analyzed, the Pera Rio variety remains practically stable, with a slight reduction of 0.1%. Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties show an estimated growth of 9.7%, while the other early varieties are expected to advance 11.8%. In the late varieties, the survey relates the results to the greater intensity of citrus greening and the accumulated impacts on later-harvest orchards.

Compared to the May 2026 estimate, no variety showed a decrease. Natal and Valencia maintained their previous projections, while early varieties advanced 5.8%, equivalent to 3.8 million boxes. Pera Rio also had a positive revision, with an increase of 4.9%, or 4.1 million boxes, compared to the previous estimate.

For the second half of 2026, the climate scenario indicates a high probability of the El Niño phenomenon occurring, although uncertainties remain regarding its consolidation. The combination of lower supply, regional differences, and phytosanitary challenges keeps the market attentive to the availability of oranges for the industry and to price behavior.