
A new extratropical cyclone begins to form over southern Brazil this Monday (31), with the potential to cause heavy rain, storms, wind gusts and possible hail. The cold front associated with the system should advance through the Southeast and Northeast between Tuesday (1st) and Thursday (3rd), increasing instability in different areas of the country.
Throughout this Monday (August 31st), the formation of an extratropical cyclone, associated with the influx of an atmospheric river, increases the conditions for intense rain, thunderstorms with many lightning strikes, wind gusts and possible hail in northern Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná.
The system may also cause isolated and brief showers in areas of eastern São Paulo and the Paraíba Valley, in the extreme south of Minas Gerais, and in southern Rio de Janeiro. The cold front associated with the cyclone should advance to other regions of the country throughout the week, bringing instability to areas of the Southeast and Northeast.
In the early hours of Tuesday (1st), there will still be a risk of moderate to heavy rain accompanied by storms in northern Paraná, mainly in areas bordering São Paulo, as well as southern São Paulo.
During the morning, rain is expected to spread throughout the state of São Paulo. There is a risk of thunderstorms, isolated hailstorms, and winds between 50 and 70 km/h, especially in eastern São Paulo.
In the afternoon and evening, the risk of heavy showers, storms, and hail remains throughout the state of São Paulo, in south-central Minas Gerais, and in Rio de Janeiro. Gusts close to 50 km/h may still occur in the Vale do Paraíba region of São Paulo. In Minas Gerais, gales will intensify, with gusts around 70 km/h in the south-central part of the state. In the city of São Paulo, the forecast indicates cloudy weather, with light to moderate rain throughout the day and the possibility of thunderstorms in the morning.
In Rio de Janeiro, showers and thunderstorms are expected between late afternoon and evening, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies. As the cold front moves north, instability should decrease in São Paulo. Even so, drizzle may occur in coastal areas during the morning and afternoon due to circulation associated with the system.
In Minas Gerais, the morning should see light to moderate rain in areas of the Central region, Rio Doce, and Zona da Mata, while Rio de Janeiro and the south-central part of Espírito Santo may also experience precipitation.
In these areas, the forecast indicates no risk of storms or other adverse conditions during the morning. In the afternoon, the instability should weaken in Rio de Janeiro, with the possibility of isolated drizzles.
On the other hand, north-central Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo may experience moderate to locally heavy rain showers, accompanied by isolated thunderstorms between the afternoon and evening.
During the night, the frontal system should also bring showers to the far south of Bahia. In Rio de Janeiro, drizzle and partly cloudy skies are expected in the morning. In Belo Horizonte, the forecast indicates light rain with thunderstorms during the morning. In Vitória, rainfall should range from light to moderate between the morning and early afternoon.
Following its advance through the Southeast, the cold front will move over Bahia, increasing the likelihood of moderate to locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in the eastern part of the state.
There may also be isolated showers inland, especially in the central region, during the afternoon. However, the forecast does not indicate a risk of disruption in these areas. By nightfall, the instability should subside throughout the state of Bahia.
In Salvador, light rain and partly cloudy skies are expected between the morning and afternoon.
Moderate wind gusts, between 50 and 60 km/h, may also occur in inland areas and coastal areas, mainly on the southern coast. Moderate wind gusts between 50 and 60 km/h are also expected in inland areas of the state and in coastal zones, especially on the southern coast.
