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PT_BR Expectations for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) October supply and demand report indicated minor adjustments to U.S. soybean figures for the 2025/26 season. The market projected a slight reduction in productivity, reflecting the worsening crop conditions observed throughout September. The average estimate pointed to 53.2 bushels per acre, a decrease of 0.6% compared to the previous forecast of 53.5 bushels per acre.
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With the area to be harvested remaining the same, the lower productivity would lead to a revision in total production, which would decrease from 117.1 million to 116.2 million tons, a reduction of 0.71 TP4T. In ending stocks, a marginal cut of 0.31 TP4T was expected, with volumes falling from 8.2 to 8.1 million tons. Part of this reduction would be offset by a slight adjustment in exports, given an uncertain external demand scenario. “In general, despite the expected cuts, the report would likely have a neutral tone, as the market continues to assess the impact of the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the increase in trade tensions between the US and China,” says Luiz Fernando Roque, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Hedgepoint Global Markets.
With the release of the report suspended in October due to the US government shutdown, the estimates remain only in the realm of projections. The next USDA report, scheduled for November, should consolidate the supply and demand data for the new season and bring more clarity to the international soybean market.
