The international market is already seeing risks for the rice harvest.

The evolution of crops rice In Brazil and neighboring countries, doubts are beginning to arise about the supply that will reach the market in the 2026/27 harvest. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst of the supply chain... riceA report by S&P Global Energy, released on October 16, shows that risks to Brazilian production are already among the factors supporting futures prices in Chicago.

In Rio Grande do Sul, especially in the western border region, the progress of planting does not mean that all areas are well established. Excess moisture, unfavorable temperatures, and irregular plant emergence can compromise crop development and affect productivity.

In Paraná, flooding of the Ivaí River is affecting rice fields at different stages of development, including crops in the grain-filling stage, with harvesting scheduled for December and January. The extent of potential losses is not yet confirmed.

The concern also extends to Paraguay. Flooding in the Tebicuary River basin and in areas near the Paraná River poses risks to already planted crops and could hinder the progress of the harvest.

In the international arena, S&P also points to climate threats in producing countries in Asia. At the same time, India maintains an export projection of 24 million tons, indicating that the scenario is not one of widespread rice scarcity.

According to Cardoso's assessment, the market is beginning to consider supply risks even before there are consolidated figures on potential losses. Therefore, attention needs to go beyond the planted area and monitor how many crops will be established, reach harvest time, and deliver quality grains.