The domestic corn market has cautious buyers.

The corn market is expected to face price pressure in Brazil in the short term, due to a loss of competitiveness in exports, increased supply from the United States, and domestic buyers taking no time to negotiate. According to the “Direto do Campo” analysis by Grainsights, produced by Grão Direto and released this Monday (5), the exchange rate, the Conab report, and weather conditions are also among the factors that could influence prices.

In Brazil, corn is losing ground in the international market. The combination of lower prices in Chicago, a stronger real, and weaker premiums reduces the competitiveness of Brazilian corn. In some destinations, US corn is even priced lower than the national product. With reduced shipments, a larger portion of the supply remains in the domestic market. Buyers appear to be well-stocked and are negotiating without haste, while producers are showing greater flexibility in price and payment terms.

Despite this scenario, demand from corn ethanol plants and meat production remains strong. In the short term, however, the trend indicated by the analysis points to upward pressure on prices.

On Thursday (15), the National Supply Company (Conab) is expected to release the first survey of the 2026/27 crop, with initial estimates for summer corn and the second crop.

The rapid planting of soybeans opens a more favorable window for planting the second corn crop, reducing the risk of planting outside the ideal period. Even so, weather conditions remain on the market's radar. Northwestern Mato Grosso still needs rain, while models indicate a risk of below-average rainfall in parts of Brazil in December and during the summer. If this scenario materializes, the weather could once again support prices later on.

The international market begins the week pressured by the report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which raised estimates of US productivity, production, and inventories to levels higher than the market's average expectations.

Given this result, the short-term outlook for corn prices in Chicago remains negative. On the other hand, some analysts question the increase in estimates and consider a downward revision of production in future reports possible. Another factor that could limit steeper declines is the behavior of US producers, who are holding back grain instead of increasing the supply available for sale.

In Brazil, the dollar is expected to remain one of the main factors driving corn price fluctuations this week. The second round of the presidential election, scheduled for October 25, may also influence the exchange rate, as new election polls tend to trigger movements in the currency. Internationally, the highlight is the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday (14). The result could alter the direction of the dollar in the global market.

While firm premiums help to contain some of the pressure on soybeans, corn remains uncompetitive in exports. Therefore, exchange rate behavior, the evolution of US supply, Conab's information, and weather conditions will be important factors to monitor in future market movements.