EN 
PT_BR 
Rain forecast between Wednesday (14) and Friday (16) increases attention to black spot in orchards of orange And tangerines in the interior of São Paulo, especially in Limeira, Araraquara and São José do Rio Preto. According to information released by Meteored, São José do Rio Preto may register 32 millimeters of rain on Friday, while the sequence of humid days reinforces the need to monitor flowering, young fruits and the sanitary history of the areas.
The forecast indicates accumulated rainfall over three days in important citrus producing regions. In Limeira, 7.5 mm are expected on Wednesday (14), 14 mm on Thursday (15) and 9.4 mm on Friday (16). In Araraquara, the forecast indicates 14 mm on Wednesday, 10 mm on Thursday and 8.4 mm on Friday. In São José do Rio Preto, the expected volumes are 6.4 mm, 12 mm and 32 mm, respectively.
Accumulated rainfall figures may change in future weather updates. Therefore, monitoring local conditions is important to guide the assessment of orchards. Repeated wet periods deserve attention because splashes can disperse spores from infected fruits and branches, while fallen leaves also contribute to the fungus's life cycle. Even so, rain alone does not confirm infection: the risk depends on the presence of the pathogen, the duration of the wetting, and the stage of plant development.
In Limeira, Matão, and São José do Rio Preto, exposure to the disease varies according to the sanitary history, the age of the trees, and the stage of fruit development. Older orchards and late-maturing varieties may require special attention due to the possibility of more significant damage.
The stage of each orchard should also guide the assessment. In areas where flowering has ended, the young fruits are exposed to humid conditions. Where there are still flowers, it is necessary to identify the plant's stage before defining management measures. Weather forecasts help guide inspections, but they do not replace plant inspection nor confirm the presence of the disease.
For producers who sell fruit to the fresh market, blemishes on the peel can reduce commercial value and restrict export opportunities. However, the effects on marketing need to be evaluated according to the destination of the production. The blemishes caused by black spot do not alter the quality of the juice. Thus, a fruit that loses value or is rejected for the fresh fruit market does not automatically represent an equivalent loss in production destined for industry.
The estimated orange harvest for the citrus belt of São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region is 263.15 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. This number corresponds to the projected production and does not represent losses caused by this week's rain. Furthermore, symptoms in young fruits can take weeks or months to appear. Therefore, the rain forecast does not allow us to conclude that there will be immediate damage to production or exports.
The forecast indicates a reduction in instability in the interior of São Paulo on Saturday (17), with more stable weather in Limeira, Araraquara and São José do Rio Preto on Sunday (18). This change may open an opportunity to inspect the tree canopies and reassess the need for orchard protection.
In areas designated for the fresh fruit market, monitoring should include recording flowering, measured rainfall, and symptoms observed in older fruits. Inspection should also extend to the underside of the canopy.
In Limeira and Matão, differences in the flowering calendar require specific assessments for each area. In São José do Rio Preto, the 32 mm of rain forecast for Friday reinforces the importance of updating the forecast before carrying out operations in the orchard. Determining the interval between applications, the products, and the need for further protection depends on the area's history, the cultivar, and agronomic guidance. Local inspection will be essential to identify possible symptoms and assess any potential commercial effects.
