EN 
PT_BR 
THE corn The Brazilian market registered significant appreciation in September, even in the face of reduced national exports. In Sorriso, Mato Grosso, the average price reached R$ 54 per sack, an increase of 14% compared to August. This movement was favored by international prices, the exchange rate, and a sales pace below the historical average.
According to Itaú BBA's Agro Consulting, the first corn futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade averaged US$5.21 per bushel in September, an increase of 11.21 per bushel compared to the previous month. During that period, the market reacted to the reduction in US production estimates and logistical difficulties related to the conflict in the Black Sea.
Risks to grain transport in Ukraine have contributed to increased uncertainty in international trade. Attacks on port infrastructure compromised maritime export benchmarks in early September, while the prospect of lower production in the European Union also supported prices.
In Brazil, some producers remained focused on finishing the harvest and planting the 2026/27 summer crop. Sales at a slower pace than the historical average helped to support domestic prices, despite weakening international shipments.
Between February and September, Brazilian corn exports totaled 15.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.51% compared to the same period of the previous year. This performance reflected the lower competitiveness of Brazilian corn and represented a limiting factor for further price increases in the domestic market.
The international landscape underwent a significant shift with the USDA's October update. The agency raised its estimate for US corn production to 407.3 million tons for the 2026/27 crop year, an increase of 5.9 million tons compared to the previous projection. The projected yield rose from 178.5 to 181.2 bushels per acre.
Increased production, combined with revised initial stock estimates, has broadened expectations for grain availability. US ending stocks were raised from 39.8 million to 47 million tons, while the stock-to-consumption ratio increased from 9.7% to 11.3%.
In the global balance, USDA's projected ending stocks reached 280.4 million tons, after an upward revision of 8.3 million tons. The increase occurred mainly due to greater availability in the United States, despite cuts in production estimates from other countries.
The evolution of the North American harvest and the performance of US exports are expected to influence future price movements. For Brazil, Itaú BBA's analysis indicates that the increased North American supply could intensify competition in importing destinations, especially if the US product maintains its competitiveness.
