EN 
PT_BR 
The soybean market will have a week marked by the USDA's WASDE report, the progress of the harvest in the United States and the return of China to purchases after the Golden Week holiday. According to data released by Grão Direto in the analysis “Direto do Campo”, this Monday (5), the weather in Brazil should also gain weight in the formation of prices.
The main highlight of the week will be the release of the USDA's WASDE report, scheduled for Friday, October 9th. The market will be attentive to a possible downward revision of the projected productivity for soybeans in the United States, after the effects of the drought recorded in August became more evident during the harvest. According to data released by Grão Direto, a possible reduction in productivity could lower the estimate of North American production and offer some support to prices.
The progress of the soybean harvest in the United States should continue to put pressure on prices on the Chicago Board of Trade this week. As fieldwork advances and the harvested volume approaches 30% to 40% of the area, the physical availability of grains in the market increases.
This movement increases the flow of soybeans to warehouses, crushing plants, and export terminals. According to data released by Grão Direto, the increased supply in the short term may limit the reaction of prices. The pressure tends to be greater as long as external demand is not strong enough to absorb the increased availability.
Asian demand is cited as the main pillar supporting global soybean prices. However, the start of Golden Week in China significantly reduced commercial and port activities. As a result, the pace of purchases on the Chicago Board of Trade lost momentum during the holiday.
Now, the market must monitor the return of Chinese importers to purchasing. Attention will be focused primarily on a possible more aggressive recovery in demand. According to data released by Grão Direto, this movement will be important to support USDA export projections and help absorb the ample North American supply.
The progress of soybean planting in South America will be another important factor for the market in the coming weeks. Weather conditions will play a central role in this process. Regular and well-distributed rainfall in producing regions such as Mato Grosso and Paraná tends to favor the pace of planting and improve soil moisture. This scenario contributes to faster crop establishment and reduces concerns related to the start of the cycle.
On the other hand, an atmospheric blocking that causes a lack of rain in relevant areas could change market expectations. According to data released by Grão Direto, soybean futures contracts on the CBOT may incorporate weather premiums if there is a need for replanting or a significant delay in the agricultural calendar. With the supply of the new North American crop becoming increasingly defined, the evolution of the South American climate tends to gain increasing importance in price formation.
