Planting accelerates and changes the debate about rice cultivation area.

The 2026/27 harvest of rice In Rio Grande do Sul, signs are beginning to emerge that could alter the discussion about the size of the area actually cultivated. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst of the supply chain... riceThe progress of planting and the recent price reaction raise a new question in the market, after a period in which the main doubt was whether planting would reach the initially projected target.

IRGA announced its intention to cultivate 861,800 hectares, a reduction of approximately 3.41 TP4T compared to the previous harvest. At the beginning of the discussions, there was a possibility that the area would be lower than this volume, given the tight margins, high costs, credit difficulties, and prices that did not yet encourage a change in producers' decisions.

The most recent data, however, shows significant progress. In the survey from September 24th, the state had already registered 155,600 hectares sown, equivalent to 18.06% of the intended area. In the Western Border region, there were 130,100 hectares, or 52.56% of the area planned for the region.

The speed is striking when compared to similar periods. The Western Border region had reached 26.7% in 2024 and only 0.05% in 2025, compared to 52.6% in 2026. At the same time, rice prices reacted and once again exceeded R$ 80 per sack in important references from Rio Grande do Sul.

Cardoso believes it is still too early to say whether the area will exceed the stated intention. Weather, financial availability, and conditions in the coming weeks remain crucial. The combination of prices, weather, and planting pace will determine whether the 861,800 hectares will be confirmed or exceeded, potentially impacting rice supply estimates for 2027.