EN 
PT_BR 
The market of corn The week begins under the influence of cuts made by the USDA in the US balance sheet, while in Brazil domestic demand and the stance of producers help define prices. According to data released by Grão Direto in the “Direto do Campo” analysis, by Grainsights, this Monday (14), the international scenario supports prices in Chicago, but the Brazilian market continues with its own dynamics.
In the United States, the USDA reduced its estimates for the 2026/27 crop and global stocks. According to data released by Grão Direto, the move boosted corn prices in Chicago and supported export parities.
This effect, however, does not occur in the same way in the Brazilian market. While Chicago gained support with the USDA adjustments, domestic prices have been under more pressure, with the B3 (Brazilian stock exchange) as a financial reference and also responding to its own supply and demand conditions.
In Brazil, the 2026 second-crop harvest has already surpassed 90% of the area in the Center-South region, indicating that the end of fieldwork is approaching. According to data released by Grão Direto, negotiations have also gained momentum in Mato Grosso.
In other producing regions, however, sellers maintain a more cautious stance. Capitalized by the results of other crops, producers have avoided large-scale sales in the spot market.
The strategy is to keep the corn in storage and wait for prices to reach more attractive levels for sale. Therefore, the availability of the grain in the physical market is influenced not only by the volume harvested, but also by the producers' decisions about when to sell.
On the demand side, corn farms and ethanol plants continue to support consumption in the main supply regions. According to data released by Grão Direto, strong demand continues to drive prices.
Even with the effect of USDA adjustments putting pressure on prices on the B3 (Brazilian stock exchange), the expectation for the Brazilian physical market is for continued price formation based on demand. Analysis indicates that this movement should occur from the ports inland, maintaining a price dynamic in the Brazilian physical market that may remain decoupled from the behavior of the Brazilian stock exchange.
In the macroeconomic scenario, the commercial dollar operating in the R$ 5.15 range contributes to sustaining the competitiveness of Brazilian agricultural commodities in ports.
According to data released by Grão Direto, the exchange rate also helps to mitigate external fluctuations in the formation of producers' revenues in reais. The week's economic agenda focuses attention on the Copom meeting, responsible for setting interest rates. The scenario demands financial management in light of rising fertilizer costs.
In addition to financial issues, producers need to monitor climate volatility associated with El Niño and exchange rate fluctuations. These factors can interfere with marketing decisions and the financial planning of their farms.
Given this scenario, the corn market begins the week with external support coming from the United States, but with the formation of Brazilian prices mainly conditioned by the relationship between available supply, the pace of sales, and domestic demand. The combination of producers less willing to sell on the spot market, firm consumption by farms and ethanol plants, and the influence of the exchange rate keeps the market attentive to the next price movements.
