EN 
PT_BR 
The strong volatility of soy This requires caution in marketing decisions, with strategies focused on protecting margins and reducing exposure to sharp price movements. According to TF Agroeconômica's weekly analysis, the recommendation is to avoid concentrated positions and to work with sales, purchases, and hedging in a staggered manner.
For farmers with available soybeans, the recommendation is to negotiate between 25% and 30% of the stock at current levels or in case of potential price increases. Another 20% to 25% can be allocated for sales if Chicago returns to the 1,320 to 1,330 cents per bushel range, keeping the remainder for a possible sustained recovery driven by Chinese purchases. Producers with already covered costs can also take advantage of opportunities to lock in some margins when the combination of Chicago prices, premiums, and exchange rates is favorable.
The support level of 1,240 cents per bushel is highlighted as an important reference point. If it holds, the decline could continue to be characterized as a correction after the strong appreciation. A consistent loss of this level increases the risk of a pullback to 1,160 to 1,165 cents. Conversely, a return above 1,320 to 1,330 cents could reactivate the upward movement.
For cooperatives and grain traders, the recommendation is to avoid high speculative inventories, work with hedging in Chicago or B3 (Brazilian stock exchange), and take advantage of price increases to expand the coverage of physical positions. Crushing industries can use the corrections to anticipate purchases, also in a phased manner, paying attention to the margins offered by soybean meal and oil.
The central strategy is to sell a portion, protect margins, and keep part of the position open. TF assesses that pressure from the US harvest warrants caution, but the strength of Chinese purchases may still limit declines and support a recovery in the medium term.
