The rice market is now focusing on the risks of the new harvest.

The market of rice The focus is beginning to shift, with attention gradually shifting away from last season's surplus and towards supply conditions in the 2026/27 season. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst in the supply chain... riceThe recent price movements reinforce signals that had already been observed in the sector.

In Rio Grande do Sul, rice prices rose sharply between July and August. According to information from Itaú BBA published by CNN Brasil, the price per sack increased from R$ 60.33 to R$ 78.37 on August 31st. This increase occurred amidst tighter stocks, expectations of lower production, exports, and climate risks associated with El Niño.

The intention to reduce the cultivated area in the state, announced by Irga, also increases uncertainties about the next harvest. The scenario includes financial difficulties faced by producers, credit restrictions, and delays in preparing the fields, factors that could influence the size of the production.

Concerns are also emerging outside Mercosur. In important producing regions of Asia, the monsoons are experiencing either excessive or irregular rainfall. In the United States, the outlook is for a smaller cultivated area and reduced production. The combination of climatic and production risks in different regions is increasing the international market's attention to future supply.

Despite this situation, there is still rice available in Mercosur and there is no indication of an immediate shortage of the product. Attention is focused on the volume that will actually reach the market and on supply conditions until the next harvest arrives.

September will therefore be crucial for monitoring planting progress, the weather, producers' willingness to sell, and confirmation of production estimates. The market will then incorporate into prices not only the current supply but also the risks related to the next season.