EN 
PT_BR 
The market of corn It should face days of greater volatility due to the divergence on the size of the North American crop. According to the “Direto do Campo” analysis by Grainsights, produced by Grão Direto this Monday (24), the difference of almost 700 million bushels between the USDA and Pro Farmer projections keeps investors looking for field data to define which scenario is closer to reality.
The main question on the market is precisely what the actual productivity of the US harvest will be. While the USDA projects a huge production, Pro Farmer points to a disappointing result.
According to data released by Grão Direto, the difference between estimates increases uncertainty and should keep prices volatile. Initial field results and productivity data will be crucial to confirming the production potential. Even with pollination now complete, the weather remains decisive for the final performance of North American crops. Excessive rainfall and storms in the eastern Midwest could knock down plants, compromise grain filling, and increase the risk of disease and quality problems before harvest.
The speed of maturation will also be on investors' radar. According to data released by Grão Direto, persistent heat can accelerate drying and shorten the filling period, resulting in lighter grains and lower productivity. The combination of these factors may reinforce concerns about losses and contribute to supporting corn prices.
Another point of attention will be international demand. Weekly export sales from the United States will be an important test for the continuation of the gains on the Chicago Stock Exchange.
The market will need to assess whether major buyers, such as Mexico, will continue to purchase significant volumes even in the face of higher prices. If importers reduce the pace of purchases in response to the price increases, demand may weaken and limit price hikes.
Argentine competition is also expected to gain ground in the international market. According to data released by Grão Direto, Argentina has a comfortable supply and available stocks, which tends to favor an aggressive export strategy, with large volumes at competitive prices.
This scenario increases the pressure on Brazilian corn, especially at the ports. To preserve competitiveness and avoid losing international buyers, Brazilian premiums may need to be reduced.
The geopolitical situation in the Black Sea remains among the main risks for global grain trade. A potential intensification of Russian attacks against Ukrainian ports and export facilities could jeopardize shipments of corn and wheat.
According to data released by Grão Direto, a reduction in the supply available on the international market could also increase freight and insurance costs. In that case, buyers would tend to seek alternatives from origins such as Brazil and the United States.
This movement would increase competition for available stocks and could trigger rapid price increases in the stock markets. In the macroeconomic scenario, the weakening of the US labor market increases bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to Grão Direto's analysis, this movement could weaken the dollar and favor commodities traded in US currency. For corn producers, however, the recommendation indicated by the analysis is for caution given the scenario divided between a full US harvest and the risks caused by erratic weather.
According to data released by Grão Direto, periods of strong price increases in Chicago can be used to lock in small portions of future production. This strategy allows for securing margins and cash flow without compromising participation in potential further price increases. Therefore, the coming days should be marked by a search for concrete signs regarding US productivity, while weather, demand, Argentine competition, geopolitics, and the financial landscape continue to be factors capable of influencing corn prices.
