Institution lowers forecast for global grain harvest.

The outlook for global grain supply in the 2026/27 season has tightened after further downward revisions to production estimates. Persistent heat has reduced projections for wheat and cornMeanwhile, lower inventories and geopolitical risks are increasing attention on the international market.

The International Grains Council (IGC) has reduced its forecast for global grain production by 6 million tons, now estimated at 2.415 billion tons. This volume would still be the second largest in history, but would fall 3% below the previous season's record.

Global wheat production was cut by 4 million tons compared to July, to 817 million tons. For corn, the projection fell by 1 million tons, to 1.305 billion tons. The scenario worsened especially in Europe, where the heat led to a further reduction in expectations for the European Union.

Global grain trade is expected to decline by 3.51 TPI (Total Per Million Tons) this year, to 451 million tons, driven mainly by a 13 million ton drop in wheat shipments. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected exports via the Black Sea, with disruptions to maritime transport since mid-July.

With consumption virtually stable and production lower, ending grain stocks are expected to fall 4.5%, to 606 million tons.

For soybeans, the scenario is different and directly involves Brazil. Larger harvests in the country and the United States should lead to a record world production of 441 million tons and trade of 190 million tons. The rice projection was reduced to 441 million tons, 6 million tons less than the previous year.

Climate and geopolitical risks have also increased the IGC's grain and oilseed price index by 31% since July, to its highest level in two years. Year-on-year, the indicator is up almost 14%, with wheat and soybeans advancing 16%.