Brazil is expected to harvest a record soybean crop in 2025/26.

Hedgepoint's first estimate for the new Brazilian soybean crop, 2025/26 season, points to a potential production of 178 million tons, which, if confirmed, will result in yet another record production for the world's largest soybean-producing country.

The estimate points to a possible increase of 3.71 TP4T in production compared to the 2024/25 season (171.6 million tons), or 6.4 million tons. Regarding area, the expectation is for an area of 48.240 million hectares, with an expected growth of 1.21 TP4T compared to 2024/25 (47.678 million hectares), or approximately 562,000 hectares.

Regarding the average productivity of Brazilian crops, the expectation is for a yield of 3,690 kg/ha, an increase of 2.51 TP4T compared to the previous season (3,600 kg/ha). “Despite a further increase in the Brazilian area, we emphasize that the expected growth points to the smallest increase in area in many years. This is likely due to the decrease in profit margins for Brazilian producers since the last harvest, resulting from lower average prices and increased production costs. This increase in costs should also lead to reduced investment in crops, with less use of fertilizers and pesticides, which increases the risk of reduced productivity if the weather is not favorable for most of the crop development,” says economist and coordinator of Grain & Oilseed Market Intelligence at Hedgepoint Global Markets, Luiz Fernando Roque.

Regarding productivity, Roque explains that the expected increase in the national average is directly linked to the likely recovery of crops in Rio Grande do Sul, after another harvest marked by losses caused by unfavorable weather conditions in 2024/25. “The recovery of productivity in Rio Grande do Sul should pull the national average upwards. On the other hand, at this initial stage, we estimate a slight reduction in the average productivity of states such as Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, and Goiás, since, in the 2024/25 harvest, the indices were well above expectations and historical averages, driven by almost perfect weather,” he details.

“In any case, we cannot rule out a repeat or even a surpassing of the high productivity levels recorded in 2024/25, which, if it occurs, could lead the Brazilian harvest to exceed 180 million tons. Everything depends on the weather,” he adds.

La Niña phenomenon

Regarding this point, the expert highlights that the climate for the development of the 2025/26 crop should be marked by the return of the La Niña phenomenon. Current estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a US government agency, indicate a probability of approximately 71% of La Niña being present between October and December 2025.

Given this, according to Roque, it is possible that good productivity will be achieved in the states of the central region and the North and Northeast regions of the country, since La Niña usually brings normal or above-average rainfall to the Brazilian North-Central region. However, the phenomenon also tends to bring below-average rainfall to the states of the Southern Region, putting the production of Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul at risk. "At this point, we highlight the importance of the production of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, which, in 'normal' years, are among the three largest producing states in the country, behind only Mato Grosso," he emphasizes.

Therefore, if La Niña is of strong intensity, a new record production in Brazil will be at risk. Despite this, the economist emphasizes the importance of highlighting that current estimates point to a low-intensity La Niña, with a tendency not to cause major problems for Brazilian production. Even so, extra caution is needed in the coming months, especially in the Southern Region.

Exports

Hedgepoint estimates point to a new record for soybean exports in 2025/26. Exports are expected to reach 112 million tons between January and December 2026, driven by even greater Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans.

The economist emphasizes that, despite this, it is important to closely monitor the next chapters of negotiations between the US and China, because if a possible trade agreement directly involves soybeans, we could see impacts on Brazilian shipments, which will require adjustments to estimates. In any case, the expectation is for strong Brazilian exports in 2026. “On the domestic consumption side, the highlights are the recent increase in the biodiesel blend (B15), in effect since August 2025, and a likely increase in meat exports in 2026, which should lead to increased soybean crushing via higher demand for soybean oil and meal. Regarding biodiesel, we highlight that, being an election year, it is possible that the new increase planned for the blend (from B15 to B16) will not occur, with the government paying more attention to inflation data during the election campaign,” he analyzes.

"Given this, although less likely, we cannot rule out a possible reduction in the blend if biodiesel prices lead to increases in diesel prices at gas stations. Therefore, it is important to be attentive to the impacts of the election race on the Brazilian economy, with possible direct impacts on domestic demand for soybeans," he adds.

According to the analyst, due especially to a possible new record production, Brazilian soybean stocks are expected to grow in the 2025/26 season, even with the expected increase in exports and crushing. The initial estimate points to ending stocks of 8.8 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season (5.3 million tons), or 66%. "Given this, we may see significant negative pressure on Brazilian prices, especially during the harvest, which deserves special attention from sellers," he emphasizes.