EN 
PT_BR U.S. President Donald Trump publicly called on China last Sunday (10) to quadruple its imports of American soybeans. The announcement boosted the market: on Monday morning (11), the spot contract on the Chicago Board of Trade rose more than 2%. Currently, China is the world's largest consumer of soybeans, having imported 105.0 million tons in 2024, with 22.1 million tons originating from the United States, approximately 21%.
In practice, Datagro considers it unlikely that US sales to the Asian country will reach the volume suggested by Trump. To reach 88 million tons (a volume equivalent to 75% of the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) projected production for 2025/26) would require exceeding total US exports in 2024 by 69% and its all-time export record in 2020 by 39%. An increase of this magnitude would almost completely compromise US sales to other destinations and would affect the US industry itself, which expects to crush 69 million tons of soybeans in the next cycle.
However, while increasing the total volume of US soybean sales to China by 4x is unlikely, any significant increase in US sales could represent a potential loss of market share Brazilian, especially considering the high Brazilian representation in this market (above 70% in 2023 and 2024).
Therefore, a potential loss of market share in China could put pressure on domestic prices and premiums, given that no other countries have the same soybean consumption potential as China. Alternative markets, such as Spain, Thailand, and Turkey, are much smaller and have a limited impact on prices. Therefore, the actual size of a potential purchase agreement with the US will be crucial in assessing the risks and alternatives for exporting Brazilian soybeans.
