EN 
PT_BR Coffee exports in Southeast Asia have been recovering in recent months. “In Vietnam, shipments followed seasonality and grew between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, with an accumulated 11.44 million bags of the harvest between October/24 and February/25, but they are still below the 13.24 million bags of the previous harvest, due to lower production and reduced stocks”, says Laleska Moda, Market Intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets.
In Indonesia, exports are above the historical average, driven by the recovery of the 24/25 harvest and attractive prices. Cumulative shipments for the season between April/24 and January/25 total 6.49 M bags, above the 5.41 M bags exported in the same period of 23/24. An increase of 15% in total shipments is expected for 24/25, reaching 7.9 M bags.
“Our first estimate for the 25/26 Indonesia harvest is 11.6M bags, an increase of 3.7% compared to the 24/25 season,” says Laleska.
However, high prices could reduce consumption and exports, although they should remain within the average of recent years.
Brazil
Market volatility is expected to continue due to uncertainties about Arabica production in Brazil. Last week, the May/25 contract reached 410 c/lb due to adverse weather and lower Brazilian supply. “Despite this, futures fell due to forecasts of rain and concerns about the impact of high prices on demand, while retailers are reluctant to pass on costs, making negotiations around the world more difficult,” concludes the analyst.
