Analyst sees risk of renewed oversupply after rice price increase.

The market of rice The company is entering a phase of greater balance after two years marked by high production, comfortable inventories, and pressure on prices and margins. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst of the supply chain... riceThe reaction in prices gained strength as planting intentions began to indicate a possible reduction in acreage in Mercosur and lower production in the United States.

In Rio Grande do Sul, the price per sack once again exceeded R$ 80, while export deals reached the R$ 90 range CIF Rio Grande Port. In Chicago, prices also showed greater firmness, even during the American harvest. However, the recovery raises a question for the sector: could the improved prices stimulate planting again and reduce the area reduction that helped sustain the movement?

Cardoso points out that this behavior is part of a known cycle. Low prices discourage planting, lower supply strengthens prices, and the recovery encourages planting again. If production grows too quickly, the surplus may reappear.

For the 2026/27 crop season, several factors differentiate the scenario. The United States is expected to have significantly lower production, Mercosur is still working with the prospect of reduced acreage, Brazilian stocks no longer seem as comfortable, exports have regained importance, and the weather is adding uncertainty during crop establishment in southern Brazil.

In this context, the area actually sown and, subsequently, productivity should take center stage. The assessment is that the challenge lies in producing enough to meet the domestic market, maintain a presence in exports, and preserve margins for producers and industries, without recreating a surplus capable of putting pressure on prices again.