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PT_BR The Brazilian soybean crop is expected to face a challenging scenario in the coming months due to a combination of high temperatures and irregular rainfall in the Central-West and Matopiba regions (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia). This assessment by AtmosMarine points to significant risks for grain filling and the initial stages of crop development, crucial steps for ensuring productivity and quality.
Second According to agricultural and environmental engineer André Pimentel, climate plays a decisive role in grain production. “Soybeans are highly sensitive to variations in rainfall and temperature. In the Central-West region, the grain-filling period, which occurs between December and February, coincides with the plant's maximum water demand. A lack of rain during this period, combined with temperatures above the ideal range (24°C to 30°C), compromises not only the weight of the grains but also productivity, which is essential for the region's economy,” he explains.
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In Matopiba, one of the country's main agricultural frontiers, concern is growing. Crops planted between October and December are especially vulnerable to prolonged periods of climatic stress, as the grain-filling phase occurs.The dry season, which extends from November to April, requires a high availability of water. "The combination of insufficient rainfall and high temperatures compromises both the volume and quality of the harvest, directly affecting Brazil's competitiveness in the global market. This scenario reinforces the urgency of climate adaptation strategies and more efficient management," notes Pimentel.
Meteorological analyses show that this adverse trend is likely to continue, indicating that the Central-West region has been registering consecutive months of above-average temperatures. "Since May, warming has become predominant and thermometers remain consistently above average. The forecast is that this trend will continue, especially in Mato Grosso and Goiás, where temperatures may exceed 2°C above expected levels," he states. meteorologist Gabryele de Carvalho.
According to She explains that the formation of a high-pressure system in the middle levels of the atmosphere should act as an atmospheric block, hindering the passage of frontal systems and the formation of rain during the transition period from winter to spring. “This blocked flow occurs precisely at a time when temperatures naturally begin to rise. In a scenario of global warming, this process intensifies and the heat becomes even more pronounced. The forecast for September is for average rainfall, but in October part of the region should register precipitation below expectations, which is particularly worrying for the start of the harvest season,” she explains.
The combination of excessive heat and irregular rainfall increases the risk of water and heat stress for soybeans, potentially compromising productivity and grain quality right from the early stages of the next crop season.
