EN 
PT_BR As exportações brasileiras de carne suína in nature vinham, até junho/25, mês a mês, superando significativamente os embarques, quando comparadas com o mesmo período de 2024. Em julho/25, pela primeira vês no ano, houve uma retração em relação ao ano passado, que não se sustentou em agosto (tabela 1). Apesar deste recuo, no acumulado do ano (de janeiro a agosto/25) são quase 13% (96,7 mil toneladas) a mais do que 2024. Na parcial de setembro/25, com dados de embarque até dia 12, já foram exportadas 63,4 mil toneladas de carne suína brasileira in nature, um aumento de 23,6% no volume diário quando comparado com setembro de 2024, indicando que, muito provavelmente, este mês se atinja novo recorde mensal de exportações, se aproximando de 130 mil toneladas.
Table 1. Export volumes of fresh Brazilian pork (in tons), month by month, in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and from January to August 2025. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.
The Philippines continue to lead our exports, and China, although still occupying second place in the year-to-date figures (Table 2), has been significantly decreasing its purchases, with China and Hong Kong combined accounting for less than half the volume shipped to the Philippines in August 2025 (Table 3).
Table 2. Main destinations of Brazilian fresh pork exports in January and August 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, with value in US dollars (FOB). Order of countries established based on 2025 volumes. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.
Table 3. Brazilian exports of fresh pork by destination in AUGUST 2025 (in tons and in US$) compared to August 2024. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.
Conforme demonstra a tabela 4, a seguir, o crescimento das exportações de carne brasileira em 2025 não se restringe a proteína suína. A carne bovina vem superando com sobras os volumes do ano passado, sendo que agosto/25, apesar do “tarifaço” dos Estado Unidos, foi o segundo melhor mês em volume exportado da história, com mais de 268 mil toneladas in nature embarcadas, mesmo com o baixo volume importado pelos EUA (pouco mais de 6 mil toneladas), um recuo de mais de 50% em relação ao mês anterior.
On the other hand, Brazilian poultry farming, which had experienced significant growth in exports in the first four months of the year compared to the same period in 2024, saw a significant reduction in shipments between May and July due to the outbreak of avian influenza in Rio Grande do Sul, reported in the first half of May. However, throughout July and August, importing countries gradually lifted their restrictions on purchases of Brazilian chicken meat. Among the countries that lifted their restrictions are: the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, the Philippines, Mexico, South Korea, and, more recently, the European Union. According to Mbagro, approximately 131% of the monthly volume that Brazil would export under normal circumstances is still suspended, such as exports to China, which represented 121% of the Brazilian chicken meat export market. Despite this drop in chicken exports, the three meats combined accumulated an increase of just over 5% (280,000 tons) between January and August 2025, compared to the same period last year.
Tabela 4. Exportações brasileiras de carnes bovina, de frango, suína e somatório das três, in natura, em toneladas, de janeiro a agosto de 2025, comparado com o mesmo período de 2024 e com o período anterior. Destaque (em amarelo) para as quedas nos volumes de frango de maio a julho/25, devido ao foco de Influenza aviária no RS e para o incremento do total somado das três carnes, com crescimento de 5,04% em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado e de 10,58% em relação aos sete meses anteriores. Elaborado por Iuri P. Machado, com dados da Secex.
Analyzing these export data for the three proteins and considering domestic availability, the reduction in chicken shipments was more than offset by the increase in beef and pork exports. In this context, with the gradual recovery of normal poultry meat shipment volumes in August, which continues in the first half of September (up to the 12th), the prices of chilled chicken carcasses, which plummeted in June 2025 in the São Paulo wholesale market (graph 1), show a significant recovery in September, especially in recent days (graph 2), following the reopening of the European Union.
Chart 1. Average monthly price of chilled chicken in São Paulo (SP), in R$/kg of carcass, over the last 12 months. Average from September to September 16, 2025. Source: CEPEA
Chart 2. Daily price of chilled chicken in São Paulo (SP), in R$/kg of carcass, over the last 30 working days, up to 09/16/2025. Source: CEPEA
Beef exports, which have surpassed last year's export volumes by almost 15%, also saw growth in slaughtering after experiencing a drop in carcass prices in July. Prices rose again in August and maintain an upward trend in September, after overcoming the threat of the "tariff hike" (graph 3). It is noteworthy that IBGE, in publishing the definitive slaughter data for the second quarter of 2025, showed that during this period, for the first time in the historical series, the slaughter of females exceeded that of males. Everything indicates that a cycle change is approaching, with a gradual reduction in the supply of cattle for slaughter and strong demand in domestic and international markets, which should keep prices firm for the remainder of the year.
As shown in graphs 4 and 5 below, pork prices (live and carcass) also fell in June and July, but recovered in August and September, showing that the market dynamics for pork going forward should be based predominantly on supply and demand, with the chicken and beef chains, which, as we saw earlier, are on an upward trend, helping to keep pork competitive, even with high prices.
Gráfico 4. Indicador CARCAÇA SUÍNA ESPECIAL – CEPEA/ESALQ (R$/kg) em São Paulo/SP, mensal, nos últimos 12 meses. Média de setembro/25 até dia 16/09/2025. Fonte: CEPEA
Chart 5. Live Pig Indicator – CEPEA/ESALQ (R$/kg) in MG, PR, RS, SC and SP, daily, over the last 12 months. Prices shown in the chart refer to the month of September/25, up to 16/09. Source: CEPEA
IBGE released the final slaughter figures for the second quarter of 2025 and slaughter data by state for the first half of the year, highlighting the increase in Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul and Minas Gerais, when compared to the same period last year (table 5).
Table 5. Pig slaughter in the first HALF of 2025 by federative unit, compared to the same period last year. Highlighting the increase in Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Minas Gerais (blue). Ranking established based on carcass tonnage in 2025. Prepared by Iuri P Machado using definitive data from IBGE.
With the start of planting for the Brazilian summer crop and the harvest of the American crop, expectations of a good supply of inputs remain.
Conab released the latest revision of the 2024/2025 crop forecast, adding almost 3 million tons of corn compared to the previous survey, totaling 139.7 million tons across the three national crops for the 2024/25 period. It's worth noting that the second crop (safrinha) has practically already been harvested, and planting of the summer crop (2025/26) of corn and soybeans has already begun in Brazil.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in a report published on the 12th, raised its estimates for soybean and corn production in the country, whose harvest begins in the coming weeks. The USDA estimated the soybean crop at 117.07 million tons, compared to the 116.82 million tons projected the previous month. For corn, the USDA increased its projection from 425.25 million to an impressive 427.08 million tons.
Even with a good supply in Brazil and expectations of a record North American harvest, corn prices in the domestic market have been rising gradually and consistently in recent weeks (graph 6), indicating that the lowest prices are behind us.
Chart 6. Average daily price of CORN (R$/SC 60kg) in CAMPINAS-SP, over the last 30 working days, up to September 17, 2025. Source: Cepea
Soybean meal also experienced a slight increase in most Brazilian markets. As pork prices saw consistent gains, even with the rise in key input costs, the terms of trade remain quite favorable (Figure 7).
Gráfico 7. Relação de troca SUÍNO : MIX milho + farelo de soja (R$/kg) em São Paulo, de agosto/23 a agosto/25. Relação de troca ideal, acima de 5,00 Composição do MIX: para cada quilograma de MIX, 740g de milho e 260g de farelo de soja. Elaborado por Iuri P. Machado com dados do CEPEA – preços estado de São Paulo
Final considerations
The president of ABCS, Marcelo Lopes, explains that the chicken export market is gradually returning to pre-avian influenza levels in Rio Grande do Sul, contributing to the recovery of prices for this meat. "This, coupled with successive monthly records in beef and pork exports, keeps Brazilian animal proteins looking promising, especially as the end of the year approaches with the traditional increase in seasonal demand." He concludes by saying that the relative stability in the supply and prices of key inputs leaves the swine sector optimistic for the coming months.
