{"id":28347,"date":"2026-10-15T11:29:47","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T15:29:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/2026\/centro-oeste\/arroz-2026-27-queda-de-producao-no-rs-deve-pesar-sobre-oferta-brasileira-apesar-de-expansao-do-sequeiro-em-mt\/"},"modified":"2026-10-15T11:29:47","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T15:29:47","slug":"arroz-2026-27-queda-de-producao-no-rs-deve-pesar-sobre-oferta-brasileira-apesar-de-expansao-do-sequeiro-em-mt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/2026\/centro-oeste\/arroz-2026-27-queda-de-producao-no-rs-deve-pesar-sobre-oferta-brasileira-apesar-de-expansao-do-sequeiro-em-mt\/","title":{"rendered":"Rice 2026\/27: Production drop in Rio Grande do Sul expected to weigh on Brazilian supply, despite expansion of rainfed agriculture in Mato Grosso."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"materia\">\n<div id=\"uolpd-video-inarticle\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Logotipo Not\u00edcias Agr\u00edcolas\" height=\"21\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.noticiasagricolas.com.br\/dbimagens\/e12363a00741f9cc7caf23469101a4aa.png\" width=\"106\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"ads-wrapper\" id=\"dfp-noticiasagricolas-paragrafos-1\"><script>window.pushAds.push(\"dfp-noticiasagricolas-paragrafos-1\")<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Brazil is expected to produce less rice in the 2026\/27 crop year, even with the forecast of an increase in cultivated area. The first survey by the National Supply Company (Conab), released this Thursday (15), estimates a harvest of 10.75 million tons, a reduction of 2.9% compared to the previous cycle, while the planted area should grow by 0.8%, reaching 1.53 million hectares. The contrast is explained by the expectation of a 3.7% drop in the national average productivity, mainly influenced by projections for irrigated rice in Rio Grande do Sul, the largest Brazilian producer.<\/p>\n<p>The production in Rio Grande do Sul is initially estimated at approximately 7.44 million tons, equivalent to 69.21 TP4T of the projected national supply. This volume represents a decrease of 4.91 TP4T compared to the previous season, resulting from a combination of a smaller cultivated area and reduced projected productivity.<\/p>\n<p>In absolute numbers, the expected decline in Rio Grande do Sul reaches approximately 384,000 tons, exceeding the net reduction of 324,000 tons projected for Brazilian production. This means that the performance in Rio Grande do Sul should determine the direction of the national result, despite the expectation of increased supply in other states.<\/p>\n<p>Among the expansion movements, Mato Grosso stands out in the cultivation of upland rice. Although it represents a small portion of total Brazilian production, the state concentrates the projected growth for the area of this cultivation system, indicating a change in the regional distribution projected for the new cycle.<\/p>\n<p class=\"image-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Imagem do ChatGPT 15 de out. de 2026, 11_23_28\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.noticiasagricolas.com.br\/dbimagens\/thumbs\/800x2000\/imagem-do-chatgpt-15-de-out-de-2026-11-23-28-yabSl.png\"><\/p>\n<h2>Rio Grande do Sul is expected to produce less due to reduced acreage and productivity.<\/h2>\n<p>Responsible for about seven out of every ten tons of rice produced in Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul is the main factor contributing to the projected reduction in national supply for 2026\/27.<\/p>\n<p>According to the official Conab spreadsheet, the irrigated rice area in the state is expected to decrease from 905,200 to 896,100 hectares, a reduction of 11 TP4T. Average productivity, in turn, is estimated at 8,300 kg\/ha, compared to 8,641 kg\/ha for the previous season, a drop of 3.91 TP4T.<\/p>\n<p>With the combination of these two factors, production in Rio Grande do Sul could decrease from approximately 7.82 million to 7.44 million tons.<\/p>\n<p>Conab points out that rural debt, production costs, and the prospect of El Ni\u00f1o are among the factors influencing producers&#039; decisions regarding the area allocated to rice cultivation.<\/p>\n<p>Regarding the climate, the state-owned company considers risks related to lower sunlight, the occurrence of cold weather during flowering, and the possibility of flooding in areas near rivers and lakes. These factors contribute to the initial expectation of lower productivity compared to the last harvest, but do not yet represent losses actually recorded in the 2026\/27 crops.<\/p>\n<p>The recovery in rice prices appears as a positive counterpoint. According to the survey, the reaction in market prices has served as the main incentive for rice farmers, although it does not eliminate the difficulties related to indebtedness and the cost of the activity.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads-wrapper\" id=\"dfp-noticiasagricolas-paragrafos-2\"><script>window.pushAds.push(\"dfp-noticiasagricolas-paragrafos-2\")<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sowing had already begun in the state at the time of the survey, reaching approximately 22% of the estimated area. However, planting showed significant differences between the producing regions.<\/p>\n<p>In the Western Border region, more than half of the planned area had already been sown, while in the Southern Region, work had reached approximately 10%. In the Coastal Plains, Campanha, and Central regions, the percentage was still below 10%.<\/p>\n<p>Frequent rains and low temperatures have been hindering operations and the initial establishment of crops in certain locations. Conab warned of the possibility of delays in completing sowing within the ideal window, between October and November.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, in addition to the producers&#039; decision to reduce the cultivated area, the development of the crops and the weather conditions in the coming months will be crucial in confirming the yield projected by the state-owned company.<\/p>\n<h2>Mato Grosso is experiencing the expansion of upland rice cultivation areas.<\/h2>\n<p>While Rio Grande do Sul is showing a projected decline in irrigated rice production, Mato Grosso is leading the expansion of rainfed rice acreage in 2026\/27.<\/p>\n<p>According to Conab&#039;s spreadsheet, the area dedicated to cultivating this system in the state should increase from 74,100 to 92,700 hectares, a growth of 25.1%, equivalent to an additional 18,600 hectares.<\/p>\n<p>The increase surpasses the approximately 18,000 hectares of net expansion estimated for the entire national area of upland rice, indicating that the growth in Mato Grosso partially offsets projected reductions in other states.<\/p>\n<p>Rainfed sugarcane production in Mato Grosso could reach 333,900 tons, an increase of 22.71 TP4T compared to the 272,200 tons of the previous season. This growth is mainly associated with the expansion of the planted area, since projected productivity decreases by 1.91 TP4T, from 3,673 to 3,602 kg\/ha.<\/p>\n<p>Despite this progress, Mato Grosso&#039;s share of total Brazilian production remains limited, at around 3.1%. Its relevance is greater within the rainfed system itself, in which it should account for approximately 47.7% of the national supply.<\/p>\n<p>The numbers therefore show two movements of different dimensions. The projected reduction in Rio Grande do Sul has a direct impact on Brazilian production, while the expansion in Mato Grosso reveals a regional concentration of growth in rainfed farming.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads-wrapper\" id=\"dfp-noticiasagricolas-paragrafos-3\"><script>window.pushAds.push(\"dfp-noticiasagricolas-paragrafos-3\")<\/script><\/div>\n<p>This does not necessarily mean a substitution between the two production systems. Projections indicate changes in the areas dedicated to rice in different states, without demonstrating a direct migration from irrigated to rainfed cultivation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"image-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Imagem do ChatGPT 15 de out. de 2026, 11_23_37\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.noticiasagricolas.com.br\/dbimagens\/thumbs\/800x2000\/imagem-do-chatgpt-15-de-out-de-2026-11-23-37-qBFae.png\"><\/p>\n<h2>Lower production should put pressure on availability and reduce inventories.<\/h2>\n<p>The prospect of reduced Brazilian production also appears in Conab&#039;s estimates for the national balance of rice supply and demand in 2026\/27.<\/p>\n<p>With a projected harvest of 10.75 million tons, down from the 11.08 million tons estimated for the previous season, the state-owned company anticipates a decrease in the domestic availability of the grain.<\/p>\n<p>Exports are expected to fall from 1.95 million to 1.66 million tons, a decrease of 14.81 TP4T, equivalent to approximately 290,000 tons. Imports, on the other hand, are initially projected at 1.3 million tons, the same volume considered for 2025\/26.<\/p>\n<p>Domestic consumption is also expected to remain stable, estimated at 10.8 million tons.<\/p>\n<p>In this scenario, the total Brazilian supply, which considers initial stocks, production, and imports, is expected to decrease from approximately 14.56 million to 13.86 million tons, a reduction of 4.81 TP4T.<\/p>\n<p>Even with the expectation of lower exports, ending stocks are also expected to decrease. Conab projects that Brazil will end February 2028 with approximately 1.40 million tons of rice in storage, compared to 1.81 million tons estimated for February 2027.<\/p>\n<p>The projected reduction in carryover inventories indicates that the projected adjustment in exports will not be sufficient to maintain final availability at the same level as the previous season.<\/p>\n<p>These estimates still represent an initial supply and demand scenario, subject to change as cultivated areas are confirmed, crops develop, harvest results are obtained, and market behavior is observed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"image-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Imagem do ChatGPT 15 de out. de 2026, 11_23_49\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.noticiasagricolas.com.br\/dbimagens\/thumbs\/800x2000\/imagem-do-chatgpt-15-de-out-de-2026-11-23-49-Agmlv.png\"><\/p>\n<h2>Costs, prices, and weather could still alter the scenario.<\/h2>\n<p>The projections for Brazilian rice are released at a time when producers are assessing the costs of the new season, financing conditions, and the recent recovery in cereal prices.<\/p>\n<p>In Rio Grande do Sul, the main producing state, these factors, combined with climatic uncertainties, influence both the area actually planted and the productivity prospects.<\/p>\n<p>Conab emphasizes that the first crop survey uses statistical and climatic models, remote sensing, market analyses, and field information. Therefore, the figures will be revised as new information on planting progress and crop conditions is incorporated.<\/p>\n<p>For 2026\/27, the main initial indication is that the expected contraction in Rio Grande do Sul should weigh more heavily on the national result than the projected production increases in other regions.<\/p>\n<p>Mato Grosso, in turn, stands out in the projected redistribution of upland rice acreage, but still has a limited share of the total Brazilian supply.<\/p>\n<p>The result of this combination is a national harvest initially estimated at a lower volume, accompanied by projections of reduced exports and ending stocks, even with expectations of stable domestic consumption.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<h6><em>THE <strong>MM Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market in the Central West Region and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.<br \/>\nDon&#039;t forget to follow our social networks.<\/em><\/h6>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.noticiasagricolas.com.br\/noticias\/graos\/429699-arroz-2026-27-queda-de-producao-no-rs-deve-pesar-sobre-oferta-brasileira-apesar-de-expansao-do-sequeiro-em-mt.html?utm_source=parceiros&#038;utm_medium=rss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Access News Source <\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O Brasil deve produzir menos arroz na safra 2026\/27, mesmo com a previs\u00e3o de aumento&hellip;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28348,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[90],"tags":[240,239,521],"class_list":["post-28347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-centro-oeste","tag-agricultura","tag-agronegocio","tag-graos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28347","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28347"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28347\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28347"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28347"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28347"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}