![](\"http:\/\/www.agrolink.com.br\/upload\/imagens-resizes\/52a8c9214d214bb2bad891e06a9adcd9_858x483.jpg\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o is already established in the Pacific and is expected to gain strength during the spring, increasing climate risks for the 2026\/27 crop. The scenario was discussed this Wednesday (16), during the 33rd edition of the talk show \u201cA Voz do Mercado\u201d, which brought together experts in meteorology, market intelligence and agricultural economics to assess the possible impacts on Brazilian agribusiness.<\/p>\n
The event, moderated by Ivan Wedekin and Suelen Farias, was themed \u201cAgribusiness and El Ni\u00f1o: forecasts, risks and strategies\u201d. Participants included Gabriel Rodrigues, meteorologist from Agrotempo and specialist in Climate Intelligence for Agriculture; Yedda Monteiro, specialist in Market Intelligence and Agricultural Commodities; and Cleiton Gauer, superintendent of the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA). The event was broadcast live on the Agrolink Portal's YouTube channel.<\/p>\n
To watch the full program, click here.<\/a><\/p>\n According to Gabriel Rodrigues, the phenomenon is not starting now. El Ni\u00f1o has been present in the Pacific since June, and the NOAA update indicates a greater than 90% chance of the event reaching the very strong category and about a 75% possibility of it being the most intense since 1950. The peak is expected between October and December, a period that coincides with the planting of the summer crop.<\/p>\n Rodrigues points to four main risks for agribusiness: above-average heat, irregular rainfall in the Midwest and Matopiba regions, excessive precipitation in the South, and impacts on logistics caused by lower river levels in the North. \u201cBut one point is essential: a strong El Ni\u00f1o increases the probability of these impacts, but it doesn't guarantee they will happen on every property. It's a risk that needs to be managed with information,\u201d he states.<\/p>\n In the South, according to the meteorologist, the trend is for above-average rainfall during the spring, with higher volumes in October and November. This excess precipitation represents an immediate risk to the... wheat<\/a> During the harvest phase, there is a possibility of grains germinating on the ear, hectoliter weight loss, and the occurrence of mycotoxins. For the soy<\/a> and the corn<\/a> In the summer, the historical pattern of the phenomenon usually favors Rio Grande do Sul, but attention must be paid to drainage, soil conservation, sowing under suitable conditions, and disease monitoring. In the Central-West region, the most consistent sign is high temperatures and, in places like Sinop and Marcel\u00e2ndia, a reduction in days with effective rainfall. In Mato Grosso, very strong El Ni\u00f1o episodes, especially in 2015\/16, were associated with delays in the start of the rains in municipalities such as Lucas do Rio Verde, Nova Mutum, Quer\u00eancia, and Campo Novo do Parecis. The study cited by the meteorologist also indicates that each week of delay in sowing reduces the rain window by five to ten days. The North and Northeast tend to register below-average rainfall and lower river levels, while in the Southeast, a transition region, irregularity and heat can affect crops such as coffee<\/a>\u00a0and sugarcane.<\/p>\n For Yedda Monteiro, one of the main points of attention for soybeans is related to the planting window and, consequently, the space available for the second crop. According to her, producers have adopted different moisture references before starting sowing. \u201cMany producers have waited for at least 100 millimeters of rain before starting planting, while others, looking at 70 to 80 millimeters, have already started planting. Especially in Mato Grosso,\u201d she explains.<\/p>\n According to the expert, the strategy aims to prevent any potential lack of rain from compromising soybean planting and further reducing the window for the second crop. The expert states that Paran\u00e1 and Mato Grosso have already begun planting, while much of the country is expected to advance with sowing between mid-October and the second half of October, a period in which rainfall will be crucial.<\/p>\n According to Yedda, the formation of soybean prices also requires attention. \u201cWe're talking about three components that make up this price in reais per bag: we have Chicago, which is the benchmark exchange; we have the dollar; and we have the premium, which is the discount we get when bringing the price to the interior,\u201d she states. She highlights that external factors, such as the demand for oil and its effects on biodiesel, in addition to international conflicts and the dynamics of Chinese purchases, influence the market. For the 2026\/27 crop, premiums have remained more supported, while the possibility of tighter Brazilian production and the presence of demand may keep prices firm. In this scenario, the recommendation presented during the debate is to avoid concentrating sales and to work with staggered marketing, taking advantage of different moments in Chicago, the dollar, and the premium.<\/p>\n Cleiton Gauer states that producers in Mato Grosso are already working with different strategies to reduce exposure to climate risks. Among these are the anticipation and distribution of planting within the available window, especially in the face of the so-called "mango rain," when one area receives rainfall while another, a few kilometers away, remains dry. "Those who were fortunate end up planting earlier, trying to mitigate some of the risk of a scenario, a more extended planting window so that they can dilute parts of this accident risk within the production system," he explains. Gauer also cites rural insurance as an alternative that is beginning to gain ground in the state and highlights the search for alternative crops, such as sesame and sorghum, which may require less water.<\/p>\n The superintendent of IMEA also draws attention to the importance of diversifying strategies given the low irrigated area in the state. According to him, Mato Grosso has less than 2% of irrigated area, which keeps a large part of the production dependent on climatic conditions. "So it is a process that Mato Grosso has been building over time, trying to work on various alternatives to try to minimize some of these impacts, knowing that we have a very high risk, especially regarding the state's harvest," he says.<\/p>\n When specifically evaluating the second corn crop, Gauer considers that the history of intense El Ni\u00f1o events requires caution in projections for Mato Grosso. According to him, the last two years have been disappointing in terms of productivity and, given the projected climate scenario, IMEA is not initially working with the possibility of record yields. The state, which currently has approximately 7.5 million hectares of corn, may experience significant impacts even with small losses in the planting window. Gauer cites 2016 as a reference, a year in which the rains ended earlier and some areas were not harvested, with approximately 101 TP4T of abandoned crops. \u201cIn the initial projections and in the models we ran trying to predict this impact, modeling the intensity of El Ni\u00f1o and its reflection on state productivity, we are working with an estimate of 901 TP4T for the harvest; a rather conservative approach to try to predict and project the impact of this on production,\u201d he states.<\/p>\n Corn, on the other hand, presents a more favorable price scenario, according to Gauer. The improvement in prices in recent months and the prospect of increased cultivated area may stimulate producers, mainly because the second crop helps to dilute costs and generate a new source of revenue throughout the year. Even so, given the climate risk, IMEA's initial assessment is that the next season "will really not be the best year in history."<\/p>\n The scenario presented during the debate reinforces that the return of El Ni\u00f1o alone does not determine the outcome of the harvest. The risk varies according to the region, the crop, the planting season, and the combination of atmospheric conditions.<\/p>\n Given the uncertainties, participants in the debate reinforced the importance of monitoring the weather and the market throughout the entire harvest season. Regional rainfall patterns, temperatures, planting windows, and marketing conditions should be integrated into farm planning.<\/p>\n This edition of the talk show was supported by Agrolink and Abisolo.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nTHE MM Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
\nDon't forget to follow our social networks.<\/em><\/h6>\n