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The week of August 22-28 saw gains abroad and firmness in the Brazilian physical market, with... corn<\/a> Driving the movement. Each of the five commodities tracked here responded to a different vector, and this separation is more important for those who are going to sell than the size of the variation itself.\n<\/p>\n corn<\/a>Tight global inventory pushes Chicago to its highest level since 2023.<\/p>\n THE corn<\/a> It was the highlight of the week. On Wednesday (26), the bushel in Chicago reached US$ 5.14, the highest price since July 28, 2023, more than three years ago. On Thursday (27), with profit taking, the contract closed at US$ 5.10, still well above the US$ 4.78 recorded a week earlier.<\/p>\n In the domestic market, prices improved at the end of August. The main markets in Rio Grande do Sul rose to R$59.00 per sack, while in other regions of the country prices fluctuated between R$46.00 and R$66.00 per sack, with the main ports indicating CIF at R$71.00. The harvest of the second crop reached 84.4% of the national area, against a historical average of 87.5%, and in the Center-South it reached 92% on August 20th, compared to 98% a year ago.<\/p>\n On the export side, the picture is one of slowdown coupled with price gains. Anec has reduced its forecast for shipments of corn<\/a> In August, exports reached 5.45 million tons, a volume 1.9 million tons lower than that recorded in the same month of the previous year, and Secex found a daily average of shipments in the first 15 working days to be 29.8% below the average for the entire month of August 2025. In contrast, the average price per ton exported rose 9.6%, from US$197.90 in 2025 to US$217.00 in the accumulated total for August 2026.<\/p>\n In Argentina, planting is expected to reach 8.4 million hectares in 2026\/27, with no major changes compared to the previous year and above the average of the last five harvests, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange.<\/p>\n wheat<\/a>Prices are firm as the new crop comes in slowly.<\/p>\n THE wheat<\/a> It also rose in Chicago during the week and helped to sustain the corn<\/a> On Wednesday, in Brazil, Safras & Mercado assessed on August 28 that the market ended the week in transition: the arrival of the new harvest is beginning to increase supply, but without yet causing a general drop in prices. Liquidity remains low, with mills and producers cautious in the face of uncertainties about productivity, quality, and the behavior of the international market.<\/p>\n In the Campos Gerais region of Paran\u00e1, prices ranged between R$ 1,400 and R$ 1,450 per ton, depending on the delivery period, while in the north of the state, prices for September were close to R$ 1,400. The harvest is still in its initial stages.<\/p>\n The backdrop remains the smallest national harvest. Conab estimates Brazilian production at... wheat<\/a> In 2026, production is projected at 5.8 million tons, a decrease of 26.21 TP4T compared to the previous harvest, resulting from a 20.41 TP4T reduction in the area dedicated to the cereal.<\/p>\n Soybeans: R$ 160 at ports on Wednesday, with Chicago and the dollar moving in tandem.<\/p>\n THE soy<\/a> It reached R$ 160 per sack in Brazilian ports on Wednesday (26), driven by a new surge in Chicago and a rise in the dollar on the same day. On Thursday (27), the American stock market retreated with profit-taking after the appreciation of the previous session.<\/p>\n In the exchange market, the dollar opened the week with a slight increase against the real on Monday (24), but found it difficult to break the R$ 5.15 range. It is worth noting that, in the accumulated total for 2026, the American currency is still operating in decline compared to the closing of 2025, which means that a good part of the appreciation of soy<\/a> The decline in reais throughout the year came from market fundamentals, not exchange rates.\n<\/p>\n cotton<\/a>Domestic market below export parity<\/p>\n THE cotton<\/a> This brought the most technical data of the week. According to Cepea, despite the recent rise in cotton prices in the Brazilian market, domestic prices have fallen 3% below export parity, a situation not seen since November 2025. In practice, it has become more advantageous to export than to sell in the domestic market, and when this difference appears, the product tends to be pushed out of the country until the domestic price rises and closes the arbitrage.<\/p>\n Cepea indicates that buyers with an immediate need for raw materials are showing a greater willingness to purchase higher-quality lots, but some remain cautious given the difficulty of passing on price increases to manufactured products. The gap between the asking and offered prices keeps negotiations sporadic.<\/p>\n On the supply side, on August 26th, Anea raised its projection for the 2025\/26 Brazilian cotton crop to 4.178 million tons, an increase of 4.31 TP4T in two months, and projects exports of 3.418 million tons in 2026 and 3.411 million tons in 2027. The estimate for the 2026\/27 crop rose to 4.029 million tons, and the projected stock at the end of 2026 increased to 2.914 million tons.<\/p>\n Fat cattle: tight supply supports the price per arroba, exports are a concern.<\/p>\n The fat cattle market spent the week balanced between restricted supply and weak demand. A survey by Scot Consultoria conducted on August 21st indicated common fat cattle at R$ 347 per arroba in the interior of S\u00e3o Paulo and cattle destined for China at R$ 350, considering gross values and terms.<\/p>\n The lower availability of cattle ready for slaughter continues to be the main factor supporting the price per arroba (a unit of weight used for cattle). Even with weaker domestic consumption and a slowdown in exports in August, the industry has found it difficult to expand its operations and force more significant price drops, and ranchers are able to hold onto some of their lots. On the international front, the filling of the Chinese quota without additional tariffs has increased uncertainties for shipments to the main destination for Brazilian beef.<\/p>\n A methodological note for those calculating variation: Cepea reports that the Fat Cattle Indicator was arbitrated using the exceptionality criterion on August 24th, which means maintaining the value from the previous business day. Weekly variation calculations that ignore this detail will be distorted.\n<\/p>\n What the week showed in macro terms<\/p>\n The Focus Bulletin released on Monday (24) maintained the 2026 IPCA projection at 5.02% and reduced the GDP growth estimate from 1.98% to 1.95%. The projection for the Selic rate at the end of the year remained at 13.75% per year and that of the dollar at R$ 5.20. The current rate remains at 14% per year, defined by Copom on August 5.<\/p>\n For producers closing sales now, the summary is that the price increases of the last few weeks came from distinct fundamentals in each chain: global inventory in corn<\/a>domestic supply in wheat<\/a>export arbitrage in cotton<\/a>external demand in soy<\/a> and the cattle cycle. Treating everything as a single market movement means missing the information that matters when deciding when to sell.<\/p>\n Frequently Asked Questions<\/p>\n What is the price of corn<\/a> today? In the week ending August 28, 2026, the main markets in Rio Grande do Sul indicated R$ 59.00 per bag, with other markets in the country between R$ 46.00 and R$ 66.00 and ports around R$ 71.00 CIF. In Chicago, the bushel closed at US$ 5.10 on Thursday (27).<\/p>\n Why the corn<\/a> Did it rise that much in Chicago? The contract hit US$ 5.14 on Wednesday (26), the highest level since July 28, 2023, supported by concerns about global supply and the rise in wheat<\/a> in the same session.<\/p>\n What is the price per arroba of fat cattle? A survey by Scot Consultoria on August 21st indicated R$ 347 per arroba for common cattle in the interior of S\u00e3o Paulo and R$ 350 for cattle destined for China, in gross values and on credit.<\/p>\n Why the price of wheat<\/a> Will prices remain strong even with the harvest beginning? Because Brazilian production is expected to fall by 26.21 TP4T in 2026, according to Conab, with a 20.41 TP4T reduction in planted area. The lower supply is supporting domestic prices even with the arrival of the new crop.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n