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An extratropical cyclone is expected to cause a new sequence of heavy rains in southern Brazil between Thursday (27) and Sunday (30), according to data released by Meteored. The system, associated with a cold front and fed by an atmospheric river coming from the Amazon, may increase the risk of severe storms, hail, microbursts, isolated tornadoes and accumulations exceeding 200 millimeters.\n<\/p>\n
Extreme rainfall intensifies in the South.<\/strong><\/p>\n The ECMWF model's Extreme Prediction Index (EFI) indicates unusual precipitation conditions for Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and parts of Paran\u00e1.<\/p>\n According to data released by Meteored, the indicator puts these areas on alert for three consecutive days of intense and heavy rain, between Friday (28) and Sunday (30), with the greatest risk in Rio Grande do Sul.<\/p>\n In the areas highlighted by the model, daily rainfall could exceed 50 to 80 mm during the three days. In southern Rio Grande do Sul, high volumes could start as early as Thursday (27). In the northern half of Rio Grande do Sul, the accumulated rainfall predicted until Sunday could exceed 200 mm. In Santa Catarina, especially in the border area with Rio Grande do Sul, volumes could also exceed 100 mm.<\/p>\n Atmospheric river reinforces the system.<\/strong><\/p>\n The forecast of heavy rainfall is related to the formation of the extratropical cyclone and its associated cold front. According to data released by Meteored, the low atmospheric pressure linked to the cyclone will act as a kind of "anchor," channeling a large amount of water vapor from the Amazon towards the center of the system. This moisture corridor is known as an atmospheric river and will be transported by the low-level jet stream (LLJ) from South America.<\/p>\n The JBN is a corridor of intense low-level winds located east of the Andes Mountains, which transports heat and moisture from tropical regions to mid-latitudes.<\/p>\n Low-level jet stream can exceed 140 km\/h.<\/strong><\/p>\n The forecast indicates a new episode of extreme JBN, with speeds exceeding 140 km\/h in the core of the system between Bolivia and Paraguay. According to data released by Meteored, this wind occurs at approximately 1.5 kilometers altitude and should not be confused with surface wind, although it is associated with the occurrence of intense gusts on the ground. JBN is one of the ingredients for the formation of severe storms predicted for the Southern region. The first storms may form in Rio Grande do Sul as early as Thursday (27) and spread throughout the Southern region until at least Monday (31).\n<\/p>\n Hail, tornadoes, and microbursts enter the radar.<\/strong><\/p>\n According to data released by Meteored, the predicted storms could be very severe, with a high risk of hail, lightning, gales and heavy rain. The formation of isolated tornadoes and microbursts is also not ruled out. The sequence of storms may cause interruptions in the supply of electricity due to intense gusts of wind and other associated phenomena. On Monday (31), the system begins to move towards the Central-West and Southeast, but unstable conditions should still affect the South region.<\/p>\n Accumulated rainfall could exceed 200 mm.<\/strong><\/p>\n The current run of the ECMWF model, used by Meteored, indicates accumulations exceeding 200 mm by the end of Sunday (30) in areas of the northern half of Rio Grande do Sul. In the southern half of the state, Saturday (29) may register more than 100 mm of rain. In the northern half, Sunday (30) may concentrate up to 150 mm in a single day.<\/p>\n According to data released by Meteored, the continuation of the rains until at least Monday (31) could raise the total accumulated amounts to above 200 mm. In Santa Catarina, the volumes should also be significant, especially in the border region with Rio Grande do Sul, where they could exceed 100 mm.\n<\/p>\n The risk of flooding requires attention.<\/strong><\/p>\n The combination of severe storms and large volumes of rain in short periods increases the risk of flooding and flash floods. Residents of areas with a history of flooding should prepare themselves and protect documents, valuables, and pets.<\/p>\n According to data released by Meteored, it is also recommended to follow the guidelines of Civil Defense and maintain an emergency plan for a possible need to leave the residence.<\/p>\n Meteored emphasizes that extreme weather events pose a challenge for meteorological models. Therefore, the exact time and location of the heaviest rainfall may still change in future updates. The recommendation is to monitor the system's evolution and new weather forecasts over the next few days.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\nTHE MM Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
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