The estimate for the 2025\/26 Brazilian soybean crop in April changed little compared to the previous month, maintaining the record outlook. Production was revised upwards by 1%, reaching 179.7 million tons. Despite losses caused by adverse weather events, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, crop performance in other regions exceeded expectations. The progress of the harvest contributed to productivity gains, raising the national average yield to 3.69 tons per hectare, according to a survey by StoneX.<\/p>\n
The most significant revisions occurred in states in the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions, where crop development conditions proved more favorable. With the harvest nearing its final phase, StoneX assesses that the 2025\/26 crop figures become less susceptible to significant changes, consolidating the projection of a record soybean harvest in Brazil, even though the total potential has been partially limited by the weather.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\nSoybeans | Estimates for the 2025\/26 crop. Source: Stonex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Corn market<\/b><\/h4>\n
In the corn market, the April report brought a positive adjustment to the first crop of 2025\/26, whose production was revised to 27.2 million tons, an increase of 1.51 TP4T compared to the previous estimate. The growth mainly reflects improved productivity expectations in states in the North and Northeast, also raising the national average yield.<\/p>\n
If confirmed, the volume produced in the summer crop will be 6.6% higher than that observed in the previous cycle, reinforcing the strategic role of the first crop in domestic supply. In Brazil, domestic corn consumption exceeds exports, making the production harvested at the beginning of the year essential to meet demand until the arrival of the second crop in the second half of the year.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\nCorn | Estimates for the 2025\/26 first crop. Source: StoneX.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
On the other hand, the second corn crop had its production estimate slightly reduced by 0.6%, falling to 106 million tons. The adjustment is mainly due to the revision of planted area in some states, with reductions in S\u00e3o Paulo and Mato Grosso, due to planting delays.<\/p>\n
In addition to area considerations, the weather remains a factor of concern. Some weather forecasts indicate below-average rainfall in April, which has also led to a slight reduction in expected productivity in Paran\u00e1. StoneX emphasizes, however, that weather projections may still change, and that the coming weeks will be crucial in determining the productive potential of the second crop.<\/p>\n
Considering the three corn crops, including the third crop, estimated at 2.5 million tons, the total production in the 2025\/26 cycle was adjusted from 136 million to 135.7 million tons.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\nCorn | Estimates for the 2025\/26 second crop. Source: Stonex.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Balance of supply and demand<\/strong><\/h4>\nIn the soybean balance, only production was revised in April. Domestic consumption remains at 65 million tons and exports at 112 million tons. Ending stocks increased to 6.44 million tons.<\/p>\n
In the international arena, the market is monitoring the China-US relationship, with expectations of a meeting between the presidents in May.<\/p>\n
In the corn sector, in addition to a slight production adjustment, StoneX reduced its export forecast to 42 million tons due to strong domestic demand. Ending stocks are expected to remain high to ensure supply until the second corn crop (safrinha).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
THE MM Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
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