Rainfall totals have been varied across the state of Mato Grosso do Sul in recent weeks, impacting the final stages of soybean cultivation and the beginning of second-crop corn cultivation. Reduced and irregular rainfall, coupled with higher temperatures, has primarily affected later-sown soybean crops, which are still in critical phenological stages. This period is crucial for determining yield components such as the number of grains per pod and grain weight. The most critical situation is occurring in the southern and southeastern parts of the state, where water deficits have been more consistently observed, leading to an estimated productivity loss of up to 351 TP4T by March 15th (Figure 1).<\/p>\n
This estimate was obtained from SISDAGRO (Agricultural Decision Support System), a system that uses agrometeorological indicators, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil water balance, to assess the impact of weather conditions on crop development.<\/p>\n
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It is noteworthy that even the northernmost areas of Mato Grosso do Sul, which had been experiencing favorable water conditions for late-planted crops and benefiting from more frequent rainfall during the soybean vegetative phase, are now beginning to register water deficits, increasing the risk of agricultural losses in this region as well. Figure 2 shows the increased frequency of daily water deficits between the end of February and the beginning of March, which contributed to the increased expectation of yield loss, estimated at up to 26.81 TP4T by March 11th. However, with the forecast of new rains in the coming days, the water deficit is not expected to intensify until March 15th.<\/p>\n
The impact of these conditions on second-crop cultures, including corn, sorghum, and pastures, also results in different rates of sowing and crop establishment. In southern Mato Grosso do Sul, corn sowing is more advanced, but depends on new rainfall events to favor the initial development of the plants. In contrast, the scenario tends to be more favorable for both sowing and crop establishment in the northern areas of the state.<\/p>\n
Regular rainfall helps maintain soil moisture and stimulates the growth of forage grasses, contributing to greater food availability for livestock. On the other hand, prolonged periods of drought reduce soil moisture and limit vegetative growth, resulting in lower biomass production and reduced carrying capacity of grazing areas.<\/p>\n
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Weather forecast<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n The weather forecast for the coming days indicates continued rainfall in the north-central, eastern, and Pantanal regions of Mato Grosso do Sul, with high accumulations ranging from 80 to 200 mm. This is expected to help maintain soil moisture in these areas, with no indication of significant water deficit during the forecast period. However, average air temperatures should remain above 26\u00b0C. This scenario may favor second-crop plantings and pastures, but could also hinder field operations. In contrast, the south of the state is expected to receive low rainfall, contributing to the maintenance of soil water deficit, which keeps the alert for possible crop losses in the region.<\/p>\n This scenario reinforces the need for careful planning of agricultural activities in the region, recommending continuous monitoring of INMET's meteorological updates, as well as monitoring soil moisture conditions, in order to support decision-making in crop management, reduce operational risks, and optimize the planning of field operations.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nTHE MM Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market in the Central West Region and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
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