{"id":26667,"date":"2026-03-03T08:34:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T12:34:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/2026\/milho\/soja-cai-21-e-milho-sobe-03-nas-projecoes-da-stonex-para-safra-2025-26\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T08:34:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T12:34:42","slug":"soja-cai-21-e-milho-sobe-03-nas-projecoes-da-stonex-para-safra-2025-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/2026\/milho\/soja-cai-21-e-milho-sobe-03-nas-projecoes-da-stonex-para-safra-2025-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Soybean prices fall 2.11 TP4T and corn prices rise 0.31 TP4T in StoneX's projections for the 2025\/26 crop year."},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

The estimate for Brazilian soybean production in the 2025\/26 crop year was reduced in March to 177.8 million tons, a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous survey. Despite the adjustment, the projected volume still represents a new national record, according to an update released by StoneX.<\/p>\n

According to market intelligence specialist Ana Luiza Lodi, the adjustment was driven by the climatic impacts observed mainly in the south of the country. "Despite still being a record harvest, climatic issues caused some damage to the crops, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, where the rains arrived late and in a very irregular way," she points out.<\/p>\n

The biggest negative highlight was the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which saw a reduction in productivity of 11.81 TP4T, leading to a corresponding cut in production. The expectation is for an average yield below 3 tons per hectare in the state. As the soybean cycle in Rio Grande do Sul is later, the progress of the harvest in the coming weeks may still bring further revisions.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Optimism<\/strong><\/h4>\n

For the first corn crop, StoneX slightly raised its estimate of national production, which could reach 26.8 million tons. Unlike soybeans, there was a positive revision of productivity in Rio Grande do Sul, the only change in this update.<\/p>\n

According to market intelligence analyst Raphael Bulascoschi, the weather conditions favored the corn crop. "The corn from Rio Grande do Sul has an earlier cycle, and the periods of greater drought and irregular rainfall did not cause the same losses observed for soybeans," he explains. As a result, the summer corn production in the state could exceed 5 million tons, becoming the largest in the country, surpassing Minas Gerais.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

For the 2025\/26 second crop, the estimate increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, potentially reaching 106.7 million tons. This adjustment is directly linked to an improved planting pace in Mato Grosso, with an increase in the estimated productivity for the state. "Although the scenario still depends on rainfall patterns in April, the recent progress in planting in Mato Grosso has reduced some of the risks and raised the national projection," highlights Bulascoschi.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Considering the three harvests, with the third estimated at 2.5 million tons, the total corn production for the 2025\/26 cycle was revised from 135.5 million to 136 million tons.<\/p>\n

In terms of supply and demand, there were no changes in consumption variables for 2025\/26. Exports for the 2024\/25 crop year were consolidated at 41.6 million tons. With total production projected at 136 million tons, the trend is for slightly lower ending stocks, given the prospect of continued growth in domestic use of the grain.<\/p>\n

Supply and demand estimates unchanged.<\/strong><\/h4>\n

In its supply and demand analysis, StoneX maintained its estimates for domestic consumption at 65 million tons and for exports at 112 million tons. With lower production, ending inventories were reduced to 4.6 million tons. "The consumption cycle is still in its early stages, with the market paying particular attention to the pace of Chinese purchases," adds Ana Luiza.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

THE MM Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
\nDon't forget to follow our social networks.<\/em><\/h6>\n

Access News Source <\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A estimativa para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o brasileira de soja na safra 2025\/26 foi reduzida em mar\u00e7o…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26339,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[223],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-milho"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26667\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}